For Apple, India offers a huge, juicy byte

Apple’s tablet computers may not have flown off the shelves here but India could be one of the largest emerging market opportunities after China for the iconic American consumer device maker known for popular gadgets such as the iPhone and the iPad.

If analysts at Credit Suisse are to be believed, India represents a $9.4 billion opportunity for Apple in four years — up over 1000% from its estimated 2011 revenues of $900 million.

Emerging markets, including India, could contribute up to 63% of Apple’s incremental sales between now and 2015, representing as much as $70 billion in additional revenue.

In India, the over $9 billion revenue milestone translates to Apple selling 98 lakh iPhones, 57 lakh iPads, a little over 3 lakh Mac desktop computers and nearly 5 lakh Mac laptops, according to Kulbinder Garcha, Deepak Sitaraman, Achal Sultania and three others at Credit Suisse.

As a way of substantiating their projection, the Credit Suisse analysts point out the telecom carrier relationships that Apple has in India and how that gives the gadget maker a captive audience to sell its products.

Bharti Airtel with about 156 million subscribers and Vodafone with about 130 million subscribers are the two carriers with which Apple currently has a relationship in India and these carriers together give it access to nearly 300 million mobile phone subscribers, who could be potential owners of Apple products.

Analysts based in India, however, are sceptical and think that the estimtes are over optimistic and too much of a stretch.

“The projections imply very steep growth rates that far exceed GDP growth rates of the local economy,” said Vishal Tripathy, principal research analyst at Gartner.

“Apple targets a niche audience, which is not growing as fast as the famed Indian middle class.”

Tripathy added that the only way numbers could add up is if Apple slashes the prices of its products or comes up with specific emerging market products and “that is not something Apple is known to do”.

Even now, Apple has not been that successful with its tablet PC, iPad.

According to researcher Cyber Media Research (CMR), the American firm has a long way to go to catch up with its South Korean competitor Samsung, which has an 85% market share in India, where tablet PC market is still at a very nascent stage.
In 2011, CMR expects 250,000 tablet PCs to be sold in India.

However, with Apple’s new chief Tim Cook talking about coming out with products that are ‘not just for the rich’, jury is still out on what Apple could do in India.

In August, Reuters reported Apple’s plan to launch cheaper products aimed specifically at emerging markets. It said this would include a cheaper iPhone 4 version, for which suppliers in Asia have already started making low-cost components.