Know the answer to what are exit polls and how accurate are they.
Exit polls of Gujarat elections will be out today by ending as phase 2 of the state assembly elections conclude. Sometimes the exit polls predictions have proven to be accurate while many times, exit polls were even different from the actual result.
There is a lot of curiosity about what exit polls are and how they are conducted. We have explained the factors around exit polls.
An exit poll asks the voters
Once the voters have cast their vote, an exit poll asks them which political parties they are supporting. An exit poll gives an idea of which party can be in majority and by how much. The accuracy of an exit poll is based on the sample size and its diversity, an unbiased questionnaire. Exit polls can be conducted both online and face-to-face.
When can an exit poll be published?
The issue of when an exit poll should be allowed to publish has gone to the Supreme Court thrice in various forms. In India, currently, exit polls are not allowed to be telecasted from before the voting has started till the last phase has ended.
Election Commission has notified that publishing any exit poll is prohibited between November 12, 8 am till December 5, 5:30 pm. While Himachal Pradesh voted on November 12, Gujarat voted in two phases on December 1 and December 5. Results for both states are out on December 8.
Read: Gujarat Elections Phase II 2022 LIVE: Congress to move EC against PM's roadshow on polling day
Accuracy of exit polls
The first exit poll was conducted in India in 1957 and since then the accuracy of exit polls has been a matter of debate. Sometimes, these predicted the final results accurately and there were times when the predictions were far from the real result.
In 1966, Lokniti-CSDS conducted the exit polls and correctly predicted a hung assembly. The actual results saw the BJP a few seats ahead — just enough to form the government.
In 2017, when Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Manipur, Uttarakhand and Punjab had gone for Assembly elections, exit polls predictions came mixed and mostly wrong.
Difference between Opinion polls and exit polls
The primary difference between an opinion poll and an exit poll is that opinion polls are conducted before the voter actually votes and exit polls are conducted after the voting is over.
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