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Will trend be Soma's friend this time?

Surendranagar constituency has been changing hands between the BJP and the Congress in the past five elections.

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Surendranagar constituency has been changing hands between the BJP and the Congress in the past five elections. If this trend continues in 2009, then the sitting MP, BJP rebel Soma Patel, should romp home on the Congress ticket this time. 

But, things may not turn out to be so simple. Soma, who has been fielded by the Congress in lieu of his support to the UPA govt during the trust vote last year, is pitted against the BJP's Lalji Mer. Both leaders belong to the Koli community and will be eyeing a large chunk of the community's votes.   

Spread over an area of 10,489 sq km, Surendranagar is the second largest constituency in the state after Kutch. The main economic activities in this water scarcity prone district are cotton farming and salt mining, mainly done in the Little Rann of Kutch. Despite
being close to Ahmedabad, it has witnessed little industrialisation. Of 14.71 lakh
voters, around 3.5 lakh are Kolis, around 1.75 lakh are scheduled castes and an equal
number are Patels. 

Delimitation has changed the contours of the constituency. The assembly segments of Koli-dominated Viramgam and Dhandhuka have been added to Surendranagar while Wankaner has been merged in Rajkot constituency. Wankaner will be a loss for the Congress as it is largely dominated by Koli and Muslim voters committed to the party.

The other assembly segments are Chotila, Limdi, Wadhwan, Dhrangadhra and Dasada. Dhrangadhra and Chotila are held by the Congress while BJP holds Limdi, Dasada, Wadhwan and Viramgam. Dhandhuka is held by Ranchhod Mer, an Independent. The erstwhile Halvad assembly segment has been merged with Dhrangadhra.

According to Varsha Doshi, the BJP MLA from Wadhwan, the merger of Dhandhuka and Viramgam in Surendranagar will work to their advantage as the Koli voters in the two areas support BJP.

Another factor that could work to the advantage of the BJP is the resentment among local Congress workers against the nomination of Patel. Local Congress leaders were in favour of nominating Jasdan MLA, Kunvarji Bavalia. However, the party could not go back on its word to Patel who is a powerful Koli leader from Viramgam and won the seat in 1989, 1991 and 2004 Lok Sabha elections. BJP leaders say that opposition against him will help their party win the seat.

Ask voters, and they cite lack of employment and industry in the region, shortage of water and infrastructure as the main issues in the election. Says Kishan Kori, an agariya in the Little Rann: "We get water only for an hour in the afternoon and have to travel several kms for it. We do not have any protective shoes, and are paid only Rs35 per day which is lower than the minimum wage (Rs60) fixed by the state government."

However, Patel says he has given large amounts from his MP fund for building check-dams which have solved the problem to a large extent.

Patel has been at loggerheads with chief minister Narendra Modi since 1995 when
he supported Shankersinh Vaghela, who broke away from the BJP and formed his
own Rashtriya Janata Party. In fact, Patel says the BJP made him lose the 1996 elections as he was part of the leaders who went with Vaghela.
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