Imran Khan vs Pakistan Army: Who will prevail?

The great Pakistani drama is fast changing its colours. Till a few days back, supporters of Pakistan Tehreek e-Insaaf (PTI) and the deposed prime minister Mian Imran Khan Niazi were plundering the streets, burning the buildings and abusing the Pakistani establishment. The same people are now running here and there, escaping from arrest, trying to hide from the Police and Army and are trying to prove that they were not involved in any kind of arson.

Another chapter of drama unfolded yesterday in Lahore when the Zaman park residence of Imran Khan was surrounded by large columns of Police after it was announced that more than forty terrorists are hiding there. Imran started with the rhetoric that he may be arrested or killed and there were voices raised to call the supporters to his residence so that police activities can be resisted once again. He even tweeted that this may be his last tweet. Such protests are not new to Pakistan and attacks on the political leaders by the Pakistan Army are not a surprise anymore. In 2007, similar outrage was seen after Benazir Bhutto was assassinated and prior to that too, there were similar incidents. However, the current situation is different and there are several questions.

Are the fears of PTI and Imran Khan true?

Is Imran Khan going to be the next Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and does the Pakistan Army have the courage to hang him?

Will he win over the mighty Pakistan Army which has been ruling over the country directly or indirectly ever since its inception in 1947?

And how will it affect the political balance in South Asia?

Let us analyse that in five crisp points:

Large public support with Imran Khan – Today,  large sections of Pakistani population are lined up in support of Imran Khan which was visible in the widespread protests after his arrest from Islamabad High Court. In March 2023, a Gallup survey in Pakistan gave Imran Khan a whooping 61% popularity while his opposition leaders Nawaz Sharif and Bilawal were jointly at 36%. Not only this, Imran Khan was also rated the most positive politician in entire Pakistan and his ratings were ratified from all the four provinces. After Imran was deposed in April 2022, his popularity has increased manifold and any adventure by the Pakistan Army and its government will be detrimental to the Pindi boys.

Declining credibility of Pakistan Army- The credibility of Pakistan Army is not the same as it used to be a decade back. Large scale corruption cases especially in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and other infrastructure projects like DHA, Pakistan Army’s direct interference in the political matters, appointment of retired Pakistan Army officers at plum positions and their monopolistic attitude with the countrymen has affected their reputation in the eyes of a common Pakistani. That is the reason why the Pakistan Army is now trying to play Islamic and Nationalistic cards. It is trying to prove that an attack on the Pakistan Army is an attack on Islamic practices and on the entire nation. Through various statements and press releases, it is trying to woo the population in its favour but it must remember that the Pakistan Army can only achieve peace and save its skin by resolving the matter through mutual understanding. Any forced adventure will bounce back on them.

Threat of a Civil War- A serious factor about the current protests is that at several places, the protesters were seen armed with weapons like Kalashnikov rifles. Keeping sophisticated weapons in Pakistan is not a surprise as most of the landlords & influential people have such an arsenal but such weapons in the hands of street protesters are certainly a matter of worry. Any action against Imran Khan may trigger another civil war in Pakistan which will be detrimental for both the Army as well as Shahbaz Sharif since “Kaptaan” carries a lot of weight in today’s Pakistan.  Pakistan is already facing bloodbath in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan where rebel groups are attacking Pakistan Army almost daily and in case the fire spreads in Sindh & Punjab too, things will be too complicated.

Uncertainty about elections – Since the popularity of Imran is on the rise and there is a widespread motion in the country that the current PDM government as well as Sharif family are responsible for the current economic doomsday, the popular mandate of the country is against them. It has heavily tilted in the favour of Imran Khan and if there are free and fair elections in Pakistan, he is most likely to come up with a thumping majority. Sharifs and the Pakistan Army know it well. Since Imran is already at an ante with the Army, the Rawalpindi boys would never want him to come to power due to their own fears. This is the reason why the Pakistan Army as well as the current Prime Minister Mian Shahbaz Sharif are too afraid to conduct the elections and there is political uncertainty in the country which may remain for another 1-2 years.

Rise of non-state actors- This is the most fearsome aspect and is a matter of worry for India too. History speaks that whenever there was political turmoil in Pakistan, circumstances gave rise to non-state actors. Pakistan Army itself produced some of these groups who were then successful in engaging the public so that their attention from the Army’s actions was withdrawn. In addition there are several religious extremist groups like Tehreek e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM), Jamiat Ulema e Islam and many more and each one of them has the capability to take the entire country at Ransom. Matter of worry is that none of them have opened their cards and each one of them has millions of followers who can come out on streets just on a call by their leader. These non-state actors can also disrupt peace in the neighbouring countries especially in Indian Punjab & Jammu & Kashmir.

When we try to summarise the facts, the possibilities of a heavy crackdown on Imran Khan and his supporters looks bleak. Today’s situation is not the same as before and the Pakistan Army has to calculate every step before it takes a leap. Any action has a counter reaction and under the present circumstances, if they make any adventure against Imran Khan, they must be ready to face repercussions too.