Lalu Prasad is making all-out bid to re-emerge as top leader

Pushed to the margins of Bihar politics, RJD chief Lalu Prasad, who till a few years back dominated the state's political landscape, is set to wage a do-or-die battle in the coming assembly elections to reemerge as the top leader.

Between 1990 and February, 2005 Lalu held undisputed sway over Bihar's caste-dominated politics by deftly manipulating minority votes and the Mandal dynamics.

In the last year's Lok Sabha elections, Prasad entered into an alliance with LJP president Ramvilas Paswan to plot a great come-back, but instead suffered serious reverses. 

Standing in the crossroads of political future, Prasad's one surefire strategy will be to exploit the near-certain division in 'secular' votes in the elections. 

RJD general secretary Ramkripal Yadav expressed as much when he said, ''Our aim will be to garner as many secular votes as possible in the elections.'' 

The RJD is also waiting anxiously for the declaration of list of candidates by the Congress in order to tailor its list accordingly.

RJD, however, is not the only contender for the secular vote pie. For instance, Congress, buoyed with the success of Rahul Gandhi and other central leaders' visit to the state, is contesting from all 243 seats in a determined bid to make a major dent in secular votes.

Among others eyeing for secular votes are the BSP of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati, Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav, besides the Left parties comprising the CPI, CPI-M and CPI-ML (Liberation) which have announced that they would put up common candidates in around 200 constituencies.

Nitish Kumar, on the other hand, is keen to bite into the minority vote cake. His NDA is banking on the launch of a number of development and welfare schemes for the minorities in the past five years.

State JD(U) president Vijay Kumar Chowdhury is hopeful that the bringing to justice of the Bhagalpur riot offenders by reopening the cases will get reflected in the election in favour of his party.

''Our party will bag a sizable chunk of minority votes because of a number of measures the NDA government has taken for the uplift of the minorities. I am sure the voters will keep the fact in mind,'' Chowdhury said.

Till 1998, Lalu, when he was at his peak, pulled nearly 30% of the votes in Bihar elections. In February, 2005 Assembly elections, Lalu garnered near 25% votes which included Muslim and Yadav votes in majority.     

In the same election, Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party played a spoiler to Lalu taking away nearly 12.3% of popular votes including those of the most backward castes - mostly Paswans - and Muslims.

It made a dent in the RJD vote bank which resulted in the increase of NDA’s seats tally up to 93, though there was no such rise in NDA’s vote percentage.

Thereafter, the political rivalry among Nitish, Lalu and Paswan resulted in a midterm election as none of the camps were able to form the government in Bihar.

Attacked from all corners for the mid-term polls, Paswan paid the price with near one per cent decline in his vote share and and in result, LJP slumped from 29 to 13 seats.

Paswan’s voters shifted towards the NDA which resulted in a marked rise in NDA’s seats tally. Though NDA’s vote share witnessed a rise of near two per cent of the popular votes, its total tally rose above 140.

Master tactician as he is, Lalu Prasad is well aware that even though his citadel was broken after 15 years, there wasn’t much decline in his party's vote share. Lalu’s net voteshare in October, 2005 Assembly election slipped by only 1.5% to 23.5%.

Afterwards, Lalu has successfully kept his vote share in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections and a string of by-elections in late 2009.

Keeping the fact in his mind, the RJD boss has wisely launched a frontal attack on the Congress, blaming it for the 'ílls' of Bihar. He went to the extent of accusing the party of 'giving an advantage to the BJP' and alleged that the two national parties were 'hand-in-glove'.

Nitish Kumar, on the other hand, charges his arch rival Prasad with entering into a 'secret understanding' with the Congress evident from the RJD leader occupying a front seat in the Lok Sabha despite having only four MPs. 

Prasad's cold calculations notwithstanding, the one obstacle he is likely to face is the successful development story scripted by Nitish Kumar's NDA government, feel the laymen.