DNA Explainer: How Taliban regained control of Afghanistan?

On August 10, US Intelligence estimated that Taliban could take over Kabul in 30 to 90 days. Five days later, the Afghan capital had fallen. The take over of Kabul by Taliban was so sudden that even the world’s best agencies were proven wrong.

The world feared a violent war and a rigid defence by an Afghan army trained by the United States. But Talibani fighters marched into the capital as President Ashraf Ghani fled. Taliban is officially back in power in Afghanistan after 20 years. 

The rapid offensive

Taliban’s rapid offensive started on May 1, coinciding with the withdrawal of majority of American and foreign troops in the war-torn country. The first three months saw Taliban gain control of the Afghan country side. However, the Taliban offensive remained away from the big cities and instead isolated them. By august, it rapidly increased its control from 73 districts to 223.

The urban offensive began on August 6. In four days, it controlled nearly two-third of the country. On August 14, Taliban was at the gates of Kabul having captured all of Afghanistan’s 34 provincial capitals but one.

On August 15, Taliban had occupied the Presidential Palace in Kabul, taking control of Afghanistan in effect.

The planning behind the offensive

Apart from a successful military strategy, Taliban also reportedly forced officials to surrenders and cut deals with a number of them.

Furthermore, the outfit used psychological warfare to bring down the morale of the Afghan forces. A move that the US did not see forthcoming, believing that the Afghan army with over 300,000 soldiers and advanced warfare equipment worth billions of dollars will be adequate to defeat Taliban.

However, the forces had been severely demoralised due to inept leadership and alleged corruption within the ranks. Desertions are reportedly a common happening in the Afghan army.

When it came to confronting Taliban, many units of the Afghan army surrendered or fled across borders.

The Taliban also pushed propaganda that claimed their victory was inevitable, spamming phones of Afghan forces and government officials with texts telling them to surrender or face worse consequences.

While the famous warlords of Afghanistan had committed to defend their cities, their men deserted the ranks when Taliban reached most provincial capitals. Seldom able to up a fight, the warlords either fled or were captured.

Coupled with the reluctance of foreign powers to intervene, Taliban’s offensive strategy of reward, respite or retribution ensured a rapid conquest.