Israel-Hamas Prisoner Swap: Road to peace or a compulsion?

Soon after the hostilities broke out between Israel and Hamas on October 7, 2023, a US-based group, with representatives from Qatar, Egypt and Tel Aviv have been working relentlessly for the release of over 239 people who were taken hostage by Hamas terrorists inside Gaza strip. Although it is not yet known how many of them are still alive.

Despite a massive and swift operation by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) involving its Air Force, Artillery and Armored columns and running over more than 60% of the Gaza Strip, Israel could not trace its hostages. The ongoing conflict has claimed over 14,000 lives and rendered nearly 70% of the Gazan population homeless and was stuck in a stalemate amid global reactions in favour of both IDF and Hamas.

Apparently, this is the first time, when the hostilities between Israel and Hamas will be ceased although temporarily and hence is seen as a silver lining in the dark clouds of war. The primary aim of Hamas behind taking the Israeli people as hostages was to get its people released from Israeli Jails. They know very well that in 2011, Israel was compelled to release 1,027 prisoners including 280 serving life sentences for various acts of terror against the release of one of its soldiers and hence soon after the events of October 7, 2023, Hamas itself started proposing a prisoner swap with Israel through its team in Qatar.

Soon a group of people led by Mohammad al-Khulaifi, the Qatari minister of State for foreign affairs swung into action with the help of his American friends. A team including US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, CIA Director William J (Bill)Burns, American National Security advisor Jack Sullivan, US envoy for Middle East Brett McGurk, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, Chief of Egyptian Intelligence Abbas Kamil and Mossad Chief David Barnea started to talk with all the stakeholders. They were successful on 20th October when two of the American citizens were released and after another three days, two old and ailing Israeli civilians were released. Although the present deal was finalized on the Sabbath day of 18th Nov 2023 but formally approved by the Israeli parliament on 21st Nov 2023.

In the first phase of the prisoner swap, Hamas will release 50 hostages which will be a mix of Israeli and foreign citizens primarily comprising women and children against the release of 150 Palestinian prisoners from Israel during a tactical pause of four days. In the second phase, another two dozen civilians will be released against 72 Palestinians and in the third phase, the balance of civilian prisoners will be released. This truce does not include the release of personnel of IDF and there is no talk about them. For the release of every ten prisoners from Hamas, Israel will extend the pause by one day. This truce is nothing but a compulsion for both Israel and Hamas who have their own dilemma while executing this truce and are left with no option but to accept this deal. 

The Israeli Compulsion - Israel went into the war at a time when its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was facing stiff opposition on his home front amidst serious political instability. He is facing a nationwide demand to get its hostages freed with a serious threat to their lives. Had Israeli leadership not taken a quick decision, the lives of these hostages could have been in danger as there are chances that Hamas terrorists may kill the hostages in desperation due to the ongoing ground operations. Since the very first day of its operations, IDF commanders have made it clear that their primary motive is to get their hostages free while the secondary objective will be to destroy Hamas and in recent days, they claimed to have achieved the second objective with considerable damage to Hamas infrastructure in northern Gaza achieving their aim to a large extent.

At the same time, Israel has started facing global isolation over the issue which may affect its future aspirations. The financial burden of a full-scale war is also a reason why Israel does not want to extend the conflict especially when Tel Aviv is getting such a lucrative deal of one hostage against three Palestinians. There is another reason for Israeli compulsion and that is the threat of a three-pronged war with Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah. In the present situation, Israel is in no position to handle any such conflict and hence the circumstances leave no option before its leadership but to accept the truce. 

The Hamas Compulsion - Hamas being the initiator of this conflict is criticized by many countries. Most of the world leaders termed them as global terrorists too and due to this, they are facing a serious identity crisis which is putting them in the category of Islamic State and Al Qaeda. During the ground operations inside the Gaza Strip, IDF has claimed to destroy most of the Hamas bases and if their claims are considered true, Hamas is in serious trouble where its entire existence may be threatened in the near future. Most of northern Gaza is already destroyed and if the hostilities do not stop immediately, southern Gaza will be razed to the ground too.

At this point of time, what Hamas needs most is the time to regroup and prepare. While IDF is moving with the sole aim of freeing its hostages, a few days of pause in hostilities will give Hamas valuable time to rest, refuel, recoup, and regroup. It will further try to extend the negotiations by slowing the release of the prisoners so that it can buy time and put international pressure on Israel for a complete cessation of hostilities against the release of its prisoners. 

The Israel-Hamas conflict has shaken the world which has still not recovered from the shock effect of the Russia-Ukraine war. Globally, everyone wants the immediate cessation of hostilities in the holy lands of Israel and the present deal looks like a positive step towards it. It is the utmost priority of the international powers to resolve the issue permanently under various accords and deals signed in the past.

The author is a veteran of the Armed Forces. He is a known Defence Strategist with keen interests in international affairs, maritime security, terrorism and internal security.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA.)