Lok Sabha Election 2019: BJP hopes to cash in on Haryana's caste split

With the constant caste realignments that are the new normal of Haryana, the forthcoming elections for the 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state are sure to be a political strategist's nightmare.

With a 29 per cent vote share, the Jats have been dominating the political scene ever since the state came into being in 1966. The community has played an even larger role by virtue of being a very vocal political force. However, the vertical split in the Chautala clan and the resultant bifurcation of the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) has weakened the community's hold over Haryana politics. Today, the community stands split between the Congress (read Bhupinder Singh Hooda), the blessed-by-jailed former CM Om Prakash Chautala and currently led by Abhey Singh Chautala — INLD, and the newly floated Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) by Hisar MP Dushyant Singh Chautala.

Modi wave

Therefore, the BJP has a minor share in the Jat pie. But, following its sizable inroads since 2014 into the other communities — including Punjabis, banias, Brahmins and the backward classes — it has a respectable vote bank of its own. Additionally favourable is the factor that after the jailing of the Dera Sacha Sauda head Ram Rahim, a large section of the backward and scheduled classes is vulnerable and is up for grabs. The only setback, the banias and the Punjabi trading families are upset over GST.

The party struck gold in 2014 when riding the 'Modi wave', it snagged eight of the 10 seats, leaving the incumbent Congress red-faced with only one seat. Regional hero INLD could also barely muster one seat. The same year, the BJP repeated the feat in the Assembly elections and formed a government in Haryana on its own for the first time. In the past, it had shared power as a junior partner in coalitions headed by Devi Lal, Bansi Lal and Om Parkash Chautala. Now propelled by the 2014 jackpot, the party hopes to have an encore performance and has decided to go it alone in 2019.

(Former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda and leader Kiran Choudhry welcoming SBP president Sudesh Aggarwal and his wife Neelam Aggarwal as they joined Congress )

Non-Jat gestures

Meanwhile, all the political parties are trying to consolidate the non-Jat votes, with the BJP taking the lead. The party already passed the litmus test of fielding a non-Jat in a Jat stronghold during the Jind by-elections where its nominee Dr Krishan Kumar Middha won the seat by a huge margin, thereby corroborating its hunch that non-Jats are game-changers. Incidentally, Congress' Surjewala —a Jat — faced an embarrassing drubbing, as he came in third, while a newbie JJP stood second.

The BJP also needs to woo the Punjabi and Baniya trading communities that are miffed with the onslaught of GST and demonetisation. "Jat votes will not be the deciding factor this time since they will be trifurcated. The non-Jats have all the potential to be the kingmaker this year. The trailer was Jind which turned out to be a huge accomplishment for BJP, but these two castes still need to be appeased. There is a lot of resentment among businessmen because they were hit badly," says Hari Singh Saini, former Haryana MLA.

To make matter interesting, the political realignments over the last few months have brought a new twist to the upcoming elections, leaving parties at sea about the calculations and the voter divide. While the INLD suffered a major blow owing to a bitter family feud that led to the split, the BJP and Congress are hoping to use the upheaval to their advantage. Additionally, the Jats who supported INLD are disillusioned and angry after the Chautala made their differences public.

Battle for survival

However, for both INLD and JJP, it is their performance in the Assembly elections due sometime later this year that is of greater magnitude because it will script the survival of either of the two. "We are strategising with the Vidhan Sabha elections in mind. If JJP performs well in the Lok Sabha polls, Dushyant will be a force to reckon with," said a source close to the MP.

BJP's setbacks

Jats own the most land in the wheat bowl of India and in 2014, the BJP rode to power in Haryana with the promise that the Gujarat model of success would be brought to the state. However, five years in, the party does not have any cohesive policy to address the widespread agrarian crisis that is causing Jat voters to break away. In cities like Rohtak and Bhiwani, farmers are battling water crisis, marginal return on their yields and increasing land acquisition.

The party also failed to get its act right in filing vacant government posts or creating new jobs for thousands of unemployed youths. The unemployment issue is also playing out precariously for the BJP that has refused to follow in the footsteps of its predecessors and recruiting for public posts using caste and regional considerations.

The BJP's biggest handicap, however, is the lack of tall leaders in the state despite being in power for five years. Gurugram MP Rao Inderjit Singh, union minister Birender Singh and former state minister Capt Ajay Yadav have limited appeal. They matter in their respective strongholds, but do not have statewide appeal.

"Haryanvis are still perplexed at a non-entity Manohar Lal Khattar becoming the chief minister and almost certain to complete his five-year term. The party piggybacked on NaMo hysteria in 2014. The real test comes now when they have to bring big names at par with the Congress, INLD and JJP's stature. If the BJP wins despite this, the people would have voted for the party, not the candidate, like they did in 2014," Saini states.

Congress' chances

The Congress, meanwhile, is hoping to cash in on its popular faces to come back to power. It has brought in fray two-time chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda as the chairman of its campaign managing committee. Hooda's son and three-time MP Deepender Singh Hooda was also the sole seat winner from Rohtak for the Congress in 2014. They hope he will work his magic in the state again.