It's Narendra Rawat versus Narendra Modi in Vadodara

"We will ensure the Congress candidate loses his deposit in Vadodara," said an enthused BJP leader on Thursday morning while kicking off the BJP's poll campaign in the city — the second constituency from where BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi will contest the 2014 Lok Sabha election. His first constituency is Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh.

Vadodara, an urban seat in central Gujarat, is by all measures among the safest seats for the BJP in the 2014 election, and although the BJP leader's assertion of making the Congress candidate lose his deposit may sound exaggerated, it may not actually be so. "Modi does not need to step into Vadodara except for submitting his nomination form. He will win with a historical margin," the BJP leader said, requesting anonymity.

Vadodara has been a BJP bastion for years. The party has represented the city in four consecutive Lok Sabha terms. It also swooped the state assembly elections in 2012, winning six of the seven seats; the seventh seat of Savli was won by Independent Ketan Inamdar, who split from the BJP after being denied a ticket and rejoined the BJP within months of winning. Five of the seven assembly constituencies consist of urban areas. Vadodara city, especially, is awash with saffron loyalists.

Following the announcement of Vadodara being Modi's second seat on Wednesday, excited BJP workers burst firecrackers, purportedly celebrating Modi's victory. BJP will seek votes on the singular agenda of Gujarati asmita of making Modi the first Gujarati prime minister of India.

The Congress though will go back to the basics. Narendra Rawat, announced as the Congress' candidate after an internal party election last week, said: "The people of Vadodara have a big problem of mosquitoes and potholes. All the drainage goes into Vishwamitri river that flows through the city. Basic facilities like drinking water is a distant dream. I will burst Modi's false claims of development."

Despite the Congress' brave words, a look at the caste demography shows that the seat is favourably inclined towards the BJP. About 20% electorate belongs to the Other Backward Caste (OBC) – a community that Modi belongs to. Among the other dominant castes are Brahmins and Baniyas (approximately 33%) and Patels (17%). A sizeable Marathi population, mostly middle-class, also exists. Poll pundits believe that they lean towards the nationalist ideology.

A possible worrisome factor for the BJP will be the 13% Muslim votes, which, if the Congress candidate is to be believed, is not yet with the BJP. Rawat alleges that since the 2002 riots, BJP has greatly divided Vadodara on communal lines. The gruesome incident of Zaheera Sheikh occurred in the city. BJP's maverick leader Madhu Srivastav, who was accused of intimidating Zaheera to change her statement, is a sitting MLA from Vaghodia.

Vadodara is known as the cultural hub of Gujarat, mainly due to the royal Gaekwad family, which patronised arts. Even today, Maharaja Sayajirao University (MSU) is among the best universities in the country.

The Congress has alleged that under Modi's rule, the university's teaching staff has been saffronised. A few controversies have indeed rocked the forward looking Arts faculty at the University.

It must be noted that the Congress's student body, National Students Union of India, reclaimed key posts of president and general secretary from the BJP's student arm, Akhil Bhartiya Vidyarthi Parishad, in the 2013 polls after nine years.