Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran factor: Threat of a two-front war for Israel

As Israel is busy in an all-out offensive against Hamas in Gaza, things are getting hot in the north. Israel’s northern border has seen many ups and downs in the past. It is probably one of the most volatile regions of Israel, which is engulfed in twin threats of Lebanon-borne Shia-dominated Hezbollah, as well as Sunni hardliners from Syrian Civil War. In recent years, Iranian involvement in the region has increased manifold and Iran has accused Israel of orchestrating several attacks inside its territory including attacking its ships in the sea and carrying out several high-profile assassinations. As per reports, the 7th October 2023 attacks on Israeli territory by Hamas were also planned by Iran who not only provided arsenal but also training to Hamas fighters. 

With global pressure on Israel to cease hostilities in Gaza due to alleged human rights violations, Hezbollah is taking an advantage of the situation and carrying out attacks in Israeli territory from its strongholds in Lebanon. At the same time, radical Islamic groups are also launching attacks from West Bank turning the one-sided punitive action of Israel into a multi-pronged war. But the threat of Hezbollah from the north is much more severe. Lot of water has flown into the Jordan river since the bilateral conflict of 2006 and in last seventeen years or so, Hezbollah has become much stronger than ever before.

Although majority of the southern Lebanon has the active deployment of United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), there are gaps and Hezbollah has prepared itself well to exploit these gaps for decades. In past few days, the conflict saw an escalation and amid rocket launches from Hezbollah and counter action from Israel resulting in death of over two dozen Hezbollah fighters, it will be extremely difficult to contain the situation if the northern front gets active. The impact on Israel is going to be severe in case Hezbollah decides to launch an all out offensive. 

The first and foremost factor is the current geopolitical situation. As Israel is facing widespread criticism on international front especially among the Islamic countries for alleged human rights violation in Gaza, the situation presents a perfect opportunity for Hezbollah to settle the scores with its archrival. At this crucial juncture, any anti-Israel force will not only get the support of Islamic Nations but other nations like Russia and China too due to global polarization owing to Russia Ukraine War. Today, when the entire Islamic world is standing against Israel and billionaires from the oil producing nations are ready to open their treasuries to fund a war against Tel Aviv, it will be a now or never situation for Hezbollah. Considering the Iran factor where Tehran too wanted to settle its old scores with Israel, they will not get a better opportunity than this. Iran supported militia showed their intent by attacking US bases in Iraq & Syria recently. Iran also knows well that if Israel is successful in eliminating Hamas, it will lose its only foothold in Israel and hence wants to come out for the rescue of Hamas.

The second factor is the strength of Hezbollah. The Shia militia is not same as it was earlier. In last two decades, the group has grown manifold not only in its number but also in the stockpile of weapons and warlike stores. Hezbollah is not only a common Islamic radical group but is organized on the lines of a proper army with a reported strength of 70,000-1,00,000 fighters who are well trained and committed. Unlike Hamas they are well equipped with Tanks, Anti-aircraft guns and missiles, huge stockpiles of Anti-Tank weapons, short and medium range artillery, large varieties of anti-ship and land attack missiles with a capability to hit the southernmost cities of Israel (acquired from Iran) and a massive stockpile of rockets which are believed to be in several lakhs. They claim of having one of the best intelligence units which has also infiltrated into Israeli Army. During the 7th October 2023 attacks, Israel’s Iron dome could not handle a barrage of few thousand rockets fired from Gaza. Imagine the situation when lakhs of rockets are fired from Lebanon? Further, unlike Hamas, Hezbollah fighters are considered one of the best Guerilla groups in the world and are capable of inflicting heavy damage to Israel if they open their front in the north. 

The third factor is the geographical location of northern Israel which is predominantly an area full of hills and forests. Except few coastal areas, most of the terrain is mountainous and supports any Guerilla force well. Unlike Gaza, it is not landlocked but well connected to Syria, Lebanon and ultimately to Iran. During the ongoing Syrian civil war, Iran has established a robust logistics chain in the area which will ultimately facilitate Hezbollah operations. Moreover, unlike other conflicts in the zone, since this one will be limited to the territorial boundaries of Israel so there is no possibility that it will get military support of its allies including mighty Uncle Sam. America burnt its hands in Iraq and Afghanistan recently and do not want to test the same waters again. 

The fourth factor is the USA itself. Although Israel considers America to be its most trusted ally, USA understands it very well that in case Israel do the mistake of venturing into Hezbollah dominated areas or instigate Hezbollah to attack him, the consequences will be detrimental for not only for Tel Aviv but for Washington too and that is why it has been publicly and privately warning Israel not to start any offensive in the north. The US is also worried about safety of its own bases and personal located across Middle East. At the same time, Russian presence in proximity of Northern Israel in Syrian territories present another threat in the light of Russia Ukraine war where Russia may like to reverse the situation against USA and use Israel to be the battle ground. That is why John Kirby, the spokesperson of White House distanced itself from the conflict and said that “US never said that it will join Israel in the event of a front with Hezbollah.” The truth is that US do not want Israel to give a trigger to Hezbollah to enter the war at any cost because it will be detrimental for itself. At the same time, it has a massive burden of keeping balance between its middle eastern allies and Israel which will be possible only if the Israel-Hamas action remains limited and does not escalate to the north. 

Summing up the situation, no matter how much Israel boast of handling Hamas and Hezbollah at the same time, it is practically not capable to do so. These times are different than the ones when Israel was handling multi-pronged attacks. Recent Hamas attacks have shattered their pride and exposed loopholes in their security apparatus. If they have evolved, their enemies have evolved many times at a much faster pace and are ready to haunt their dreams. The regional security situation will become dirty and disastrous in case Hezbollah enters the war. 

The author is a veteran of the Armed Forces. He is a known Defence Strategist with keen interests in international affairs, maritime security, terrorism and internal security.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA.)