This is possibly for the first time in the state that various 'influential' parties under the patronage of veteran leaders are contesting the battle of the ballot
Rajasthan Congress seems jubilant after the decision by some 'disgruntled' BJP leaders to quit the party and form a new party. The Congress feels that this would weaken the saffron party's base. This turmoil within the BJP has made the grand old party leaders so confident that when the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) decided to fight the election alone and shied away from a pre-poll alliance, the Congress leadership showed full confidence in winning two third seats in the Assembly election on its own. So a big question is, will the new parties that have come up in Rajasthan ahead of polls benefit Congress or the BJP is a million dollar question that is doing the rounds in the state.
Rajasthan politics has remained bipolar. This is possibly for the first time in the state that various 'influential' parties under the patronage of veteran leaders are contesting the battle of the ballot. Some of these parties are based on caste while some on the region, but these would not create a dent on Congress and BJP's prospects across the state. However, in certain pockets, these might definitely change the score for both the Congress and BJP. In some constituencies, these smaller parties are capable of springing up surprises while on others they could play spoilsport for both Congress and BJP.
In an event of the rerun of 2008, where the Congress fell short of a majority in the state, the regional parties can play the role of kingmaker. Disgruntled BJP leader and a Brahmin face, Ghanshyam Tiwari has formed Bharat Vahini Party (BVP) while Independent leader Hanuman Beniwal, who quit BJP owing to a difference with chief minister Vasundhara Raje, a decade ago, is set to announce his new party on October 29. Both these leaders who are in talks to finalise pact on seat sharing will damage BJP less than Congress as it would share the anti-incumbency votes against Raje government. Their parties might cut votes in certain pockets.
Similarly, the BSP, a recognised national party and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are contesting 200 seats across the state. It must be a concern for the Congress that BSP having a base in ST-SC votes and AAP in urban and youth can play a spoilsport. These parties, like regional parties, will share anti-incumbency votes, denting Congress poll prospects. In Assembly elections, the margin of victory remains in few thousand votes and if these parties manage to get votes in this number, then it may indirectly benefit the saffron party. So far the Independent candidates and rebel leaders use to fight elections on their own when denied tickets. But now they may switch to these parties and get their symbols. They will thus get votes of their supporters, castes to which they belong to and also traditional voters of the parties they would be joining.
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 "Hanuman Beniwal and (right) Ghanshyam Tiwari")
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