Russia-Ukraine crisis: NATO-Russia and options before the world

The recent events in Ukraine are moving rapidly and apparently, it has become a war of the world with NATO on one side and Russia on the other side. Going in further past, the primary purpose of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) was to create a world order to handle the situation arising out of the Cold War where a constant threat of nuclear war among the world was looming over this planet. The organisation was created in 1949 and had its main adversary was the Communist Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). The centre stage of the cold war was predominantly Europe where countries were divided into NATO or the Eastern Block/ Warsaw pact during the tense period. NATO was militarily at its peak during these times and after a series of events over a period of two years from 1989 to 1991, the purpose of creation of NATO was effectively achieved. These events were firstly the “European revolution of 1989” which virtually ended communism from Europe, Secondly the “Unification of Germany” in October 1990, Thirdly the “Treaty of Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE)” which limited the military activities in Europe and Fourthly, “The dissolution of Soviet Republic” which eliminated all the enemies of NATO.  

Although Russia emerged as the major successor of the USSR and inherited its military power almost in totality, its interference in global politics was very much limited owing to its own problems including decade long economic crisis and internal political disturbances. Since the very aim of NATO was achieved, America should have put a brake on its activities so that an atmosphere of peace in the world can prevail but that did not happen. Europe once again became a playground for NATO in 1992-1995 and in 1999 when it intervened in Bosnia & Yugoslavia respectively creating further chaos.  

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Due to its ambitions of becoming the only superpower of the world, America used NATO in all possible ways to settle its scores & create a mess all over the world. The organisation which should have been dissolved with the USSR saw unexpected expansions in the world with an aim to encircle Russia in all possible ways. In 1999, Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic joined NATO. All three of them were erstwhile Warsaw pact countries and were located close to Russia. NATO further extended its membership and in the due course of the time appointed eleven more countries as its members. it added Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia in 2004, Albania and Croatia in 2009, Montenegro in 2017, and North Macedonia in 2020. Most of these countries were part of the Eastern Block/Warsaw pact, was a close ally to the erstwhile USSR and present-day Russia and were located in close proximity to Russia. Meanwhile, there were no reports when Russia created a group or joined another military alliance against NATO. Almost all countries except Ukraine which were located next to Russia were made NATO members and American Forces/ missiles/ Air Crafts were stationed there even when Russia did not make any aggressive posturing till the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Since 2013-14, the US made all possible efforts to include Ukraine in NATO and station its war machines there.  

Current events in Ukraine are to be seen in the limelight of the fact that when NATO came in close proximity of Russia to the extent that there existed a threat to the sovereignty of the Kremlin, it has all the rights to prevent any such threat by stopping the last standing pillar from falling. Russian Invasion of Ukraine was not to threaten the sovereignty of Ukraine but to save itself from the American threat of a possible NATO deployment in Ukraine.  

In the current context when NATO countries are meeting to plan a punitive action against Russia and European Union is getting ready with another action plan, the biggest question is will they be able to achieve the objective? The answer is a clear no. The emphasis should be to bring peace to the planet and not to push the world into another global conflict or World War III. At this time when we see neutral bodies like the United Nations speaking in the tune of the White House, the world must thoughtfully think about the repercussions. As I see, there are two clear options before the world-  

First and foremost, the option is peace. As we see that Russia is advancing rapidly in Ukraine and the fall of Kyiv is inevitable in the next 24 hours, we can perceive Russia exercising absolute control of Ukraine in the next 2-3 days. What the world must do is to talk to Russia, assure him of his security concerns and create adequate protocols to ensure that. At the same time, the UN should appoint observers from neutral nations like India, Brazil & Japan to carry out free and fair elections in Ukraine so that democracy can be brought back. At the same time, a phased withdrawal of Russian Forces should be ensured so that peace may prevail.  

The second and worst option which America may be considering is to take punitive military action against Russia. This is far from a peaceful resolution and will be suicidal for America as well as European Union. Military action will not only instigate Russia to react with its full might against the adversaries but also to seek allies in its pursuit. Currently, the United States has many adversaries including China which are likely to join the Anti-NATO movement which will create another world order against the US which may include China, North Korea, Venezuela & several other countries. In all this, the worst affected party will be European Union because it is Europe that will become the battleground of world powers once again.  

These decisions are time-sensitive and are calculative. The effect of this event on the world economy is already visible and with each passing day, the situation is getting worse. Neither US nor Russia will be a major loss in all this mess. The net loser will be humanity, after all.  

The author is a veteran from Armed Forces. He is a known Defence Strategist with keen interests in international affairs, maritime security, terrorism and internal security.