Normal monsoon this year, says IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) stuck to its first long-range forecast on Wednesday and said that southwest monsoon rains would be normal and quantitatively, 97 per cent of the long-period average. The monsoon is all-important for summer crops that are largely rain-fed.

The country's national forecaster also said that with the exception of the northeast region, northwest, central and southern parts of the nation will all receive normal seasonal rainfall. This means that the dry and semi-arid regions of Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi will receive good rainfall unlike last year. This is also positive news for southern regions that faced one of the worst droughts in history last year.

Northwest India will receive 100 per cent rainfall of the long-period average, while it will be 99 per cent over Central India, 95 per cent over South India and 93 per cent over the northeast. The probability of a normal monsoon is 43 per cent, the Met department said while there is a 28 per cent probability of below normal rains and 13 per cent probability each of deficient and above normal rains. The rest 3 per cent probability is of excess rains.

The average seasonal monsoon rainfall from June to September, based on data from 1951 to 2000 data is 890 mm.

The IMD categorizes rainfall in the 96-104 per cent LPA range as normal, while immediately below that it is considered below normal.

Each year, IMD issues its first long-range — June to September — forecast in April and updates it in May end or June, based on the prevailing conditions. The second long-range forecast takes into account six parameters and key among them are landmass heating and minimum temperatures over the northwest. The forecast added that the country will see 101 per cent rainfall of long-period average in July and 94 per cent in August, with a model error of +/-9.

The monsoon's intensity and variability also depends on sea-surface temperatures and at present, global models indicate that conditions over Pacific are likely to be neutral during most part of the monsoon and will turn to weak El Niño conditions after monsoon season.