China and the world of spy balloons

Finally, American Jets have shot down the suspected Chinese balloon which was seen hovering over sensitive missile sites in Montana five days back. America termed it a highly advanced Artificial Intelligence powered balloon capable of carrying out high altitude surveillance and reconnaissance missions. This was not the first time that these spy balloons were visible in the world. Similar balloons were spotted over several countries including Latin America, Taiwan and reportedly India in recent times too, putting serious speculations over Chinese intentions.

The entire world fully knows that China has been developing spy balloons for almost a decade and has achieved significant breakthroughs in this. There are several advantages of these spy balloons which can outcast any drone, aerial platforms, or satellite-based surveillance in modern times. Firstly, these balloons fly at ultra-high altitudes where very few aircrafts can reach, and the zone is beyond the coverage of most radars. Secondly, they are predominantly made up of synthetic material and use of metal is very less in such platforms making them radar proof. Furthermore, they have a round design to deflect radars and they fly at very low speed making them almost invisible to ground based radars. Thirdly, unlike other platforms, they can hover at a target for days and collect the data over a long time giving a high level of redundancy and fourthly, unlike satellites, their orbits cannot be predicted.

These balloons can be fitted with an advanced Artificial Intelligence (AI) powered manoeuvring system, Synthetic Aperture Radars (SAR), High resolution optical imaging tools, signal intelligence devices, Data link nodes for Radio and Satellite and array of solar panels to power all these tools. These arrays are like the ones installed in a satellite and hence give an endurance of several months to such balloons. Such balloons can also be fitted with a dedicated satellite communication link to send the information to its base station in real time.
These are the reasons that not only China, but Russia and the United States too are investing heavily in spy balloons. While China has been on its spy balloon program for almost a decade, the Pentagon too has invested almost $3.8 million in 2020 and 2021. Interestingly, the 2023 budget for spy balloons for the United States is kept at more than $27 million. Raven Aerostar is an American Company currently being tasked to produce these spy balloons and has already come up with few solutions.

China has been insisting that it was not a spy balloon but a meteorological balloon which deviated from its original path and hovered over America. These claims look totally fake when we analyse the images and other data of the spy balloon shot over America. Let us understand that in simple language.

1. The balloon shot by American jets was flying at a very high altitude. Usually, weather balloons fly at 25000-35000 feet but this one was initially at 65000 feet which came down to 40000 feet due to some malfunction and was visible. 65000 feet is a height at which very few fighter jets can fly and there is almost nil radar coverage hence the spy balloons of China have largely remained undetected.

2. The distance which this balloon travelled from mainland China to Montana is huge. No known weather balloon can travel such distances under any circumstances. How it travelled the entire Pacific Ocean covering nearly 15000 Km despite aerial turbulence is a question too. Moreover, the endurance of any weather balloon is just a few hours or a couple of days, however this balloon had been travelling for the past several months which is near impossible for any weather balloon.

3. The material used in making this balloon was a very strong synthetic material used in making tethered aerostats. This material is expensive too. Usually, weather balloons are made up of latex or any other cheap material because they get destroyed in the air after their purpose is finished and their payload is recovered by a parachute. No country will be spending several millions on just the material of a meteorological balloon fully knowing that it will be destroyed in a few days. So, the Chinese claim looks baseless.

4. When we analysed the images over the web, it was clear that the spy balloon was carrying a huge payload which included a few boxes (Probably the communication/ Surveillance devices), a large array of solar panels (for power generation) and some sort of manoeuvring system. US experts claimed that this balloon had an advanced AI based manoeuvring system capable of pushing this balloon into any desired direction using thrust vectors of wind.

The exact technical parameters and other details of this balloon will be known only after Pentagon officials release any statement over it; however there is no reason to believe that the balloon shot over America was a meteorological one. Instead, there are hundreds of reasons to concur that this indeed was a very advanced spy balloon sent by China. In the present-day world, which was already witnessing new and advanced war machines, a new tool is added now- these AI powered spy balloons and now the defence technologists in the world will be pushed to explore a countermeasure to this.

The author is Major Amit Bansal, a veteran from the Armed Forces. He is a known Defence Strategist with keen interests in international affairs, maritime security, terrorism and internal security.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA.)

READ | Chinese app ban: Centre moves to ban 138 betting apps, 98 loan lending apps with China connection