Tensions in Korean Peninsula: Is US opening another conflict zone?

Two recent events from Korean Peninsula have drawn the attention of the entire world. First was the second testing of a nuclear-powered underwater drone by North Korea and second which is more worrisome is that North Korea has cut off all communication links including the routine twice-a-day hotline with South Korea for three consecutive days till now.

With the testing of such an unmanned platform named “Haeil-2” capable of carrying nuclear warheads, North Korea has become the third such country after the United States & Russia. North Korea is already developing weapons of mass destruction at an alarming rate and recent events can be a cause of concern for the rest of the world.

North Korea has shown unprecedented aggressive postures in the last month. On 9^th March 2023, it tested six short-range missiles. After two days on 11^th March 2023, when American and South Korean Navies were carrying out a battle exercise, it further launched multiple cruise missiles from a submarine. It tested more missiles on multiple occasions and multiple times on 14^th March, 16^th March, 19^th March, 22^nd March, and 27^th March 2023 before announcing the success of its nuclear-powered underwater drone. The missiles tested during this time included short-range ballistic missiles, Cruise missiles, and Inter-continental ballistic missiles with maneuverable trajectories.

The current events could be the reaction of North Korea against the US-South Korean joint exercise but there are other factors too. While the fact remains clear that this exercise was more of a show of force to Pyongyang than to carry out a military drill, North Korea has always been cautious of American intentions. The exercise involved long-range strategic bombers like B-52, Aircraft Carriers, Nuclear powered submarines and carried out Amphibious landing drills on a large-scale inciting fear in the mind of “Kim Jong Un” that a joint US-South Korean offensive may be in pipeline. Let us analyze the factors in light of current events and understand if these events may escalate into a war?

Unpredictable intentions of North Korea- Since being an autocracy, the intentions of North Korean leaders have always been unpredictable. When Kim II Sung, grandfather of the current ruler of North Korea Kim- Jong Un launched an invasion of South Korea in 1950, the move was totally unpredictable too. Major military strategists termed it as suicidal, but they went ahead with it despite initial losses and humiliation. This time too, trusting North Korean Intentions may be a mistake.

Threat of any American intervention after Ukraine war-The events leading to the Russia-Ukraine conflict are a direct example of Western hegemony and how the US can use one country against another. North Korea has always been suspicious of any such move by the United States where the US can use South Korea against North Korea like it used Ukraine to settle scores with Russia. It could be the next victim of Western hegemony. We must not forget that barely three months prior to Feb 2022 when the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated into a full-scale war, the US and other NATO countries carried out a large-scale joint exercise in the Black Sea involving Ukraine. Current military exercises by US and South Korean forces in the vicinity of the Korean peninsula are seen in the same light by Pyongyang.

Presence of large contingents of US troops in South Korea- United States has always maintained a permanent presence in South Korea which is more than 30,000 soldiers today under its United States Forces Korea (USFK) which is a sub-unified command under the US Indo-Pacific Command. This force, which in principle is supposed to be part of the existing UN forces deployed post-Korean war is predominantly a US-backed force and always considered as a threat by North Korea.

Support of China and Russia – Being established on socialist and communist grounds, North Korea is very much close to Russia and China than any other and the two countries form its lifeline. During the Korean war too, when North Korean troops were defeated and pushed back after suffering massive losses, China moved its forces in support and was successful in pushing back UN forces back to the 38^th Parallel. This time too, North Korea knows that since Russia is contesting the Western hegemony in Ukraine and China is face to face with the US in the South China Sea and all three have a common enemy, they may come to its rescue once again and hence is not afraid to show repeated offensive postures.

Deterrence or show of force? – Everyone knows that war is not going to be in the favor of either of the countries or a group of countries. Gone are the days when there were world wars. Today, there are factors that can limit war to a region and thus the intentions of North Korea will always be to avoid a conflict as long as it can. North Korea may show aggressive postures as deterrence and not as a show of force knowing that even if it starts an escalation, global powers may come to limit it knowing the nuclear status of North Korea. It knows that nuclear deterrence, missile deterrence, and deterrence of other types of weapons can be effective in maintaining an equilibrium in the region & keep western powers at an arm’s length.

In modern times, the resolution of a conflict cannot happen by military means. The way America has forced its hegemony on Asian nations in past few decades has been the trigger of several key conflicts including Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and concurrently Ukraine. Tensions in the Korean peninsula are also a result of the same. If instigated more, North Korea too may become a conflict zone, and knowing the military might of Pyongyang, things may turn ugly for the United States this time.