DNA Special: How much will BJP suffer due to rebel MLAs?

Today, we will introduce you to the ‘Engineers’ of politics in Uttar Pradesh. These people perform social engineering before every election. They make formulas for winning elections in political laboratories. All the time, they keep calculating electoral math. The way our country's engineers and scientists create Physics, Chemistry and Math formulas, the leaders of our country also create new formulas in their political labs before every election.

In Uttar Pradesh, eight BJP MLAs, including three ministers, have resigned in the last three days. They have resigned from the party on the basis of caste equation. All these leaders are from the backward castes. And after five years of being ministers and MLAs, these leaders now feel that injustice has been done to their castes. Now, they want to do a new kind of social engineering.

Today, we will tell you how much will the BJP suffer and how much Akhilesh Yadav will benefit from the departure of these MLAs and ministers. But before this analysis, here is the essence of it in a line – “The loss of these MLAs will hurt the BJP as much as the night curfew damages the Coronavirus.”

Hopefully, you must have understood us.

Our analysis will be in a total of three parts:

• Firstly, what is the real reason why these ministers and MLAs have left the BJP?
• Secondly, how much loss can it cause to BJP and how much can Akhilesh Yadav benefit?
• And thirdly, what will the people of UP achieve with this defection? So how much is the benefit of the voters?

Uttar Pradesh is currently in a cricket match with the score of leaders leaving the BJP changing from moment to moment. Eight MLAs who have played for the BJP team have left the party in the last three days. Three of these leaders were ministers in the Yogi Government. So, this is not at all a minor defection. Another thing is that, out of the eight MLAs who have left the BJP, seven are from OBC and one from Dalit community.

Social engineering can also be behind this defection. The term social engineering is used in politics when leaders of their society are given a chance to unite voters of a particular religion, caste and community in elections. You think that there are a total of five voters in a village, three of whom belong to a particular religion or caste. Now, if elections are held in this village and a party gives a ticket to a leader who comes from that religion or caste, they will benefit. This is a normal math on which entire politics goes on.

Just as the youth of our country go to college and study engineering, the leaders of our country live among the people in the society and do engineering of castes.

So, if you feel that these Ministers and MLAs have left the BJP because they were angry with the neglect of their castes in the Government and the party, you may be wrong. There are actually some other reasons that you can understand in some points.

The first point is that, we have come to know that most of these leaders were about to get their tickets cut. That is, before the BJP left them, they left the BJP. Leaders change parties in every election but often this trend is seen when a party releases the list of candidates. And the BJP had not yet released its list of candidates. That is, these leaders had received the news, this time they are not going to get tickets. This was the biggest reason behind leaving the BJP.

You must have heard of migratory birds, which change their place according to the weather. And you can also call the leaders who change the party during elections migratory birds. They also keep changing their places according to the weather and the wind

These leaders were in danger of not getting a ticket because they do not fit into the current caste combination in Uttar Pradesh. This time Muslim and Yadav vote bank is united. And this vote bank will not be divided into different parties.

Uttar Pradesh has 18% Muslim voters and 10% Yadav voters, also known as M-Y Factor in UP politics.

However, the chief engineer of the MY Factor is believed to be former Bihar Chief Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav and not former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav. He had formed governments in his state by engineering Muslim, Yadav vote bank. And later this formula was used in another state.

However, in Uttar Pradesh till now, the same trend was seen that a large part of the Muslim and Yadav vote banks were divided between the three major parties. One is Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party, the other is Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party and the third is Congress. But electoral pundits believe that this time in Uttar Pradesh, a large part of this 28% vote bank will remain united and will support Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party. And this is a major reason why eight MLAs left the BJP in three days.

For example, Swami Prasad Maurya has been a 3-time MLA from Padaruna seat in Uttar Pradesh - twice from BSP and once from BJP. But it is believed that this time he feared that he might not win if he contested from the seat while in the BJP because this time the caste equation is against them.

Yadav, Muslim and other castes have 27% voters in this seat, who are considered to be traditional voters of Samajwadi party. Moreover, the number of Brahmin voters is 19%, who are considered to be angry with them. That is, Swami Prasad Maurya did not want to take the risk of a total of 46% of the voters being dispersed, so he quit the BJP.

However, he was also facing this threat in the 2017 elections. And perhaps that is why he left BSP and contested from BJP at that time. And then the BJP won the election in the name of Modi. That is, there was an equation of castes. But the Modi factor was also working. You can say that Swami Prasad Maurya has decided to quit BJP only on the template of 2017.

The same is being said for Dara Singh Chauhan, cabinet minister in the Yogi government. Because there are 60,000 voters from Yadav community and 22,000 voters from Muslim community in his seat. If they are combined, these votes are 82,000. If Dara Singh does not get these votes, it would be difficult for him to win the election. We have come to know that Dara Singh Chauhan was asking for a ticket from Ghosi instead of Madhuban and the BJP had categorically refused to give him the ticket. Due to which he quit BJP.

The Nakud seat from which BJP-quitting minister Dharam Singh Saini is an MLA is a Muslim dominated seat. The highest number of Muslim voters in this seat is 1.30 lakh. Dharam Singh Saini feared that if even half of these votes went directly to the Samajwadi Party candidate, his defeat was certain. And that is why he left the BJP to save his seat. Another thing is that there are reports that BJP leaders had already made it clear that they would not give them tickets this time. Dharam Singh Saini won the 2017 elections by a margin of just 4,000 votes. But they demonstrate their strength as if crores of backward caste voters are in their fists. And they will go with any party at their behest.

Swami Prasad Maurya, Dara Singh Chauhan and Dharam Singh Saini were ministers in the Yogi government. All three come from backward castes. All three had Join BJP before the 2017 elections. And the language of the resignation sown by all three is the same. Reading these, it seems that these three resignations have the same script writer.

You must have understood two things here. First, these leaders left the BJP either because they feared that the party would not give them tickets. Or he moved to another party because he felt that he would not be able to strike an ethnic balance between the voters by staying in the BJP. That is, these leaders left the BJP to save their seats.