Covid 4th wave to arrive in India like China? Is Omicron sub-variant BF7 dangerous? What we know so far

China has reportedly been grappling with a massive coronavirus surge because of which their hospitals are overrun with Covid-positive patients. The BF.7 sub-variant of the Omicron variant of the virus, also called Omicron Spawn, is precipitating this sudden influx of patients in the country. The crippling surge is surprising as China had imposed the draconian zero-Covid policy. Some experts, however, claim it was this policy that led to the coronavirus' latest onslaught on the people of the country.

The BF.7 sub-variant is more transmissible than the Delta variant of the virus that wreaked havoc in India in mid-2021. It is proving to be deadly for the people of China. However, it isn't clear how it will behave in India. The Omicron variant of the virus had triggered another wave late last year in India, but it was not as deadly as the one started by the Delta variant. One reason for this was that a large chunk of the population had already been vaccinated in India. During the period of two-three months, the hospitalisations remained low.

The Omicron sub-variant is known to be able to bypass the natural and acquired immunity of their hosts, which is a cause for concern. The ability to jump from one host to the other makes it dangerous as it would likely infect a large number of people in a short span of time. Even if the hospitalisation rate is low, if the number of patients is massively high, the surge can make India's health system get overwhelmed. 

This variant has shown an enhanced capability to bypass the immune response compared to their sibling variants -- BA.1, BA.2 and BA. The reproduction number of BF.7 is 10; that of the Delta variant was 6.

The most worrying aspect of the new variant is that its incubation period is shorter than the Omicron sub-variants, which means the victims will display symptoms faster than before, providing less time to the authorities to respond to the crisis. However, that most of the Indian population had been exposed to Omicron last year may work in India's favour.

Unlike India, China adopted the zero-Covid policy, characterised by long-drawn lockdowns and forced institutionalization of even mildly sick patients. This policy means the country's population was not exposed to virus and is now more vulnerable to the new variant. 

What WHO said on the new surge

Tedros Ghebreyesus, WHO chief, expressed concerns over the sudden surge in China. He said the WHO hopes to get detailed information on the severity, hospital admissions and ICU support numbers from China. 

"The WHO is supporting China to focus its efforts on vaccinating people at the highest risk across the country, and we continue to offer our support for clinical care and protecting its health system,” added Tedros.

He, however, said the world is in a better position to tackle the surge than last year when the Omicron ripped surged through the world, increasing the numbers of cases and deaths.

India's response

Since October, India has logged four BF.7 cases so far. While two cases were recorded in Gujarat, one was reported in Odisha. 

The Indian Medical Association (IMA) on Thursday issued an advisory over the surge in China, asking people to follow the coronavirus protocols, including the practice of wearing face masks. It has also asked the doctors to remain alert and ready to fight the pandemic.

Here are the salient points of the advisory. Face masks are to be used in all public places; social distancing has to be observed; hands should be washed with soap regularly and sanitized; avoid public gatherings and social functions; avoid international travel;  consult the doctor in case of any symptoms; get the booster dose. 

It said the situation in India isn't alarming as of now but "prevention is better than cure". 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday chaired a high-level meeting with senior officials on the coronavirus situation in india. He cautioned the masses and officials against complacency and issued directions regarding the ongoing surveillance, especially at international airports. 

The PMO said in a statement that people must follow Covid-appropriate behaviour, especially in view of Christmas and New Year. 

He also asked the officials to ramp up testing and genome sequencing. 

The meeting was attended by Home Minister Amit Shah, Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya, Civil Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, Minister of Information and Broadcasting Anurag Thakur, Minister of State for Health and Family Welfare Bharati Pravin Pawar, Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister PK Mishra, NITI Aayog CEO Parameswaran Iyer, Member (Health) NITI Aayog V K Paul, Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba, Advisor PMO Amit Khare, Home Secretary A K Bhalla, Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan, reported PTI.

Meanwhile, Health Minister Mansukh Madaviya informed the parliament today that the authorities are conducting random sampling of 2 percent of all international arrivals.