DNA Explainer: How long the Russian invasion in Ukraine will last given these 5 situations

The scenes from Ukraine amid ongoing war with Russia are spine-chilling. The streets wear deserted look and death and destruction can be seen spreaded everywhere. Gunmen are seen roaming in the midst of explosions, buildings being destroyed, military vehicles passing through the streets and sometimes littered with civilians. 

Experts point out to the various reasons responsible for the death of hundreds of innocent civilians and soldiers. More than a week has passed since the invasion launched by Russia, but how long this conflict will last is not yet clear. A third round of talks between Ukraine and Russia would be held soon. 

Vladimir Medinsky, an adviser to President Vladimir Putin, who led the Russian delegation to talks in Belarus near the Polish border on Thursday, said the two sides positions are very clear, written down one thing at a time, including issues related to a political solution to the conflict. Without elaborating much he said, "There has been a mutual agreement on their part."

Here we discuss 5 situations on the war and how long the Russian invasion can last in each given situations.

Read | Russia takes control of Kherson - Here's what is happening in Ukraine's other major cities

Short war

According to the BBC, under short war Russia will intensify its military action. The Russian Air Force, which has been deprived of any major role so far, can also intensify activities through air strikes. Instead of bravely defending, if Kyiv falls into the hands of Russia then Moscow-backed puppet government would come to the power.

President Zelenskyy is either eliminated, or he flees Ukraine or establishes a government-in-exile from abroad. After this President Putin declares victory and withdraws some soldiers while Ukraine joins Belarus as Moscow's puppet state. 

Long war

The current war is expected to last long. It is possible that during this period, due to morale breakdown and trouble in reaching logistics and weak leadership, the Russian army may be weakened. It may take a long time for them to gain control of cities like Kyiv. After this, even if Russian forces reach the cities of Ukraine, they may find it difficult to maintain control.

Russia may not be able to send enough troops to cover the whole country. In the meantime, with the support of the local people, the revolt from the Ukrainian forces may begin. If the supply of arms to Ukraine from the West continues, this can also prolong the war. It may be so that in several years, perhaps after the new government in Moscow, the Russian army will leave Ukraine.

European war

The question is whether there is a possibility of this war spreading beyond the borders of Ukraine or not? President Putin may send troops to places like Moldova and Georgia, which are not part of NATO, to gain power in parts of Russia's former empire. Putin can talk of retaliation by calling Ukraine's supply of weapons from the West as aggression.

They can send troops to NATO member Baltic countries such as Lithuania to build a land corridor along the Russian coast of Kaliningrad. However, this would be very dangerous and also carries the risk of war with NATO.

Under Article 5 of the Charter of the Military Alliance, an attack on any one member amounts to an attack on all. But if President Putin thinks this is the only way to save his leadership, he can take that risk. If they face defeat in Ukraine, they can think of increasing activities.

Read | DNA Explainer: What is Russia's strategy after a week of Ukraine's invasion? WATCH VIDEO

Diplomatic solution

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, "At the moment, the guns are talking, but the path of dialogue should always be open." French President Emmanuel Macron has also spoken to Putin on the phone. Although this did not bring much benefit, but by agreeing to talks, Putin has not ruled out the possibility of a ceasefire.

The key question is whether the West can give Russia what diplomats consider an 'off ramp' (a ramp by which one leaves a limited-access highway). Diplomats believe it is important that the Russian leader knows what it takes to lift sanctions imposed by the West. There is a pressure on Russia from both within and outside to end the war.

Putin out of power

At the start of the attack, President Putin said he was ready for any outcome. But what if they lose power as a result? According to the BBC, Professor Sir Lawrence Friedman of King's College in London wrote this week, "Now there is a high probability that the regime will change in Moscow along with Kyiv." Now the question arises, why did he say so?

Putin may continue to attack, as a result leading to the killings of thousands of Russian soldiers. This would not just damage the economy but lead to Putin losing support. There is probably also a danger of a revolution within with Russia's military, political and wealthy turn against Putin. 

The West has made it clear that if Putin leaves and an ordinary leader takes his place, some of Russia's sanctions could be lifted and diplomatic relations could improve. Although this seems unlikely in the current situation, it is not impossible if those who benefitted from Putin start to feel that they can no longer protect their interests.