118th meeting of Indus Water Commission: Is the treaty relevant now?

Nearly 62 years have passed since the Indus Water Treaty was signed between India’s then Prime Minister Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru and Pakistani Military dictator General Ayub Khan on September 19, 1962.

At that time, no one thought about equality, no one thought about the future requirements, and no one was bothered about the fate of Indian people. As a result, we got a binding treaty which is detrimental to Indian Interests. It is said time and again that the future wars will be fought over water as the supply of fresh water on Earth is limited. India and Pakistan are no exception either.

As per the treaty, the rivers were divided in two groups. Eastern Rivers were Beas, Ravi and Sutlej, whose water was exclusively for Indian use while water of three western rivers – Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum – was meant for Pakistan. However, India was at liberty to construct projects on these rivers under the provisions of the treaty.

Over last several decades, due to some reasons or lack of political will, India did not utilise its share optimally. This resulted in widespread crop losses and draught-like situations in Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, and Rajasthan several times.

Since Pakistan too was getting much more than its desired share, it never complained, and things were smooth. India not only allowed a huge quantity of water to flow through eastern Rivers into Pakistan but also did not construct projects on any of the western rivers. Thus, Pakistan was happy and there was no hue and cry over the treaty in the initial days.

So, when India started utilising its share of water and construction of various projects on the river started in Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistani concern was inevitable. Pakistan got so irked that it started protesting aggressively on international forums for such projects despite knowing that these are well within the purview of the treaty and since the treaty is bilateral, raising the matter on international platforms is a futile effort.

Since then, there have been several meetings of the Indus Water Commission in recent past and the latest 118th meeting of the commission is being held on May 30 and 31, 2022 at Delhi for which a five-member senior Pakistani delegation has already reached India.

Although both the countries are carrying the burden of this treaty, a big question arises now. Is the treaty still relevant? Can blood and water flow together? And is India free to walk out of the treaty at its will? Let us have some points to understand this.

1. Unequal share of water: At the first instance, the treaty was unequal. If we take the total flow of water through these rivers (both eastern and western) and their distribution of water, Pakistan got a whooping 81% while India got a mere 19% share of water. Not only this, since all the rivers were flowing in Pakistan and India lacked the desired infrastructure to hold even this 19% of water of its own share, it allowed nearly 40-50% of this water too to flow into Pakistan which benefitted our western neighbour. In present times, to utilise its share well, India not only constructed projects in Jammu and Kashmir but also started construction of three projects (Shahpur Kandi, Ravi Beas Link & Ujh River Project) to hold the excess water flowing in eastern rivers. However, the net distribution of water in the treaty is not fair and hence warrants an abrogation of this treaty. Not only this, as per the provisions of the treaty, India had rights to store 3.6 million Acre Feet (MAH) water in western rivers but was hardly utilising 20% of it. Now when India started the construction of various hydropower projects in Jammu & Kashmir as per the rights given in the treaty, Pakistan is creating unnecessary ruckus over the issue.
2. Binding nature of the treaty and provision of withdrawal: Indus water treaty is a bilateral treaty where none of the international bodies like United Nations were involved. Although it was brokered/ negotiated by World Bank, its role is not relevant anymore. Despite unilateral withdrawal of any of the party from the treaty is not allowed under normal circumstances, it allows a country to withdraw in case another country violates the provisions. Over the years, due to the provisions of not using water of western Rivers, people of Jammu and Kashmir faced widespread shortage of water resulting in crop damage and other issues. The impact was so that in 2003, Jammu and Kashmir Assembly passed a resolution to abrogate the treaty. As the treaty is bilateral, India walking out of it will not have any international implications. At max, it can attract some criticism and condemnation and that is the biggest fear of Pakistan.
3. Terrorism: India has been a victim of terrorism from Pakistan and suffered worst in last three decades. Pakistan, where terrorism is taken as a state policy, has been using it to wage war against India and situation was so bad that in 2016, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, “Blood and Water can not flow together”.  India tried its best to control the terror menace from Pakistan but there is no relief. Attack on Indian Parliament in 2001, 26/11 attacks on Mumbai, Uri in 2016 and Pulwama in 2019 are few examples of Pakistan sponsored terrorism in India and as per Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (1969), India has full right to withdraw from this treaty. However, every time we were attacked, our leadership chose not to do so. This was the past but the possibilities of India abrogating the treaty in the future can not be ruled out.
4. Pakistan violated it first: As per the provisions of treaty, the end point of the river is important and in the case of Indus River, the end point is in Indian territory in Run of Kutch where its tributaries re-enters India from Pakistan. Ideally Pakistan should not have constructed any projects in this area but during 1987-1997, it constructed Left Bank Outfall drain project (LBOD) in Ghotki district of Pakistan with the financial help of World Bank thus clearly violating Article IV (10) of Indus Water Treaty by both Pakistan and the world Bank. This LBOD is discharging saline water full of industrial waste into Indian territory which is not only causing floods but also degrading our lands. Not only this, when India started construction of Kishanganga Hydro Power Project to utilise its share of 3.6 MAH of water storage, Pakistan in Nov 2016, started shelling on the main dam from its territory. It is a clear violation of the treaty and under such circumstances, India gets absolute rights to abrogate the treaty as it has already been violated by Pakistan.

Indus Water treaty has been an old burden on India which was based on unequal distribution of share and bounded by provisions which lack relevance now. Moreover, due to lack of far-sightedness of our past leaders, things became complicated and Pakistan is fighting for the rights which were never allocated to it. Provisions of the treaty envisages its modification from time to time as per the requirements but that too did not happen as a result of which India was the worst sufferer. India has strong reasons to walk out of this treaty and that is the need of the hour too. Under all circumstances, the treaty is no longer relevant and should be abrogated.

The author is a veteran from Armed Forces. He is a known Defence Strategist with keen interests in international affairs, maritime security, terrorism and internal security.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA.)

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