The present crisis did not happen all of a sudden. The tell-tale signs were visible immediately after the October 2021 Iraqi Parliamentary elections.
Entire Baghdad has been under total curfew since yesterday and situation in the middle eastern country is going out of control ever since the new wave of violence erupted in Iraq. The country was constantly under bloodshed for over six decades and never got a chance to stabilise itself. Recent events suggest that the present situation will invariably lead to another civil war between two majority Shiite armed groups.
The present crisis did not happen all of a sudden. The tell-tale signs were visible immediately after the October 2021 Iraqi Parliamentary elections when the struggle for power had put the two majoritarian Shia groups against each other. While one was controlled by Moqtada al-Sadr, the other which is supported by Iran is under control of ex-Prime Minister Nouri a-Maliki. However, the person on the centre stage of the present crisis was Moqtada-al-Sadr. This started after negotiations over power in Baghdad post 2021 elections failed & Moqtada-al-Sadr announced his retirement from political life on 29th Aug 2022. Soon after this, his supporters stormed the “Green Zone” of Baghdad destroying properties and occupied government palace after which several people were killed in military action. After a day, violence extended to Karbala, Basra and the areas adjoining Umm Qasr Port in Basra blocking all the routes to the only deep-water port of Iraq.
To decode the present crisis, it is pertinent to understand the stature of Moqtada-al-Sadr. He had been the most influential politician in Iraq who has been the commander of Mehdi Army, a strong militia holding control over big territories in Iraq. Since Iraq is a Shia dominated country, the position of Sadr is a strong one. His powers can be judged by a fact that on 26th Feb 2016, he led a protest in the prestigious “Tahir Square” of Baghdad which was attended by over a million people. Same year on 18th March, his supporters too stormed the Green Zone of Baghdad as a show of strength.
After recent Parliamentary elections in Iraq, Sadr’s party emerged as the biggest party however he failed to gain a consensus on forming the government and hence till date the old caretaker government is functioning under his trusted Mustafa al-Kadhimi. While the Iran supported coalition was getting stronger, Moqtada-al-Sadr demanded fresh elections anticipating that the opposition may take over the power and is trying to arm twist the country by threatening the civil war.
Moqtada-al- Sadr is known to be a staunch opposer of United States and has been on the ante of Washington ever since the first gulf war. He had been supporting the fact that Iraq can act as a mediator between Shia dominated Iran and Sunni dominated Saudi Arabia which could be detrimental to American Hegemony and probably that is the reason, an armed drone targeted his house in Baghdad on 7th Sep 2019 however al-Sadr survived the attempt.
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While discussing the present crisis, we must not forget prominent Shia Cleric Ayatollah Kadim al-Hayeri. Both Kadim-al Haeri and Moqtada-al Sadr claim to be the successor of Shia Cleric Mohammad Baqir-al Sadr, who traced his lineage to Muhammad. Although al-Haeri had been staying in Iran under an exile since 1970 yet had a sizeable number of his supporters among the Shia population of Iraq. Even a large number of al-Sadr’s supporters follow him. Kadim-al Haeri announced his retirement from the Twelver Shiite community on 29th Aug 2022 and requested all of his supporters to pledge their support to Ali Hosseini Khamenei, supreme Iranian leader instead of Moqtada-al Sadr which infuriated al-Sadr who announced his resignation within hours of this announcement criticising decision of al-Haeri.
After all these events, Moqtada-al Sadr feels that the current events may lead to a Shia dominated government in Iraq which is influenced by Iran and this is something he would like to avoid. The coalition led by ex-prime minister Nouri al-Maliki is getting stronger and the block backed by Iran is getting stronger and stronger. The militia under control of this block too is armed and being supported by Iran heavily. They are supplied by heavy weapons, Artillery and even armed drones by Iran.
This leaves only one option before al-Sadr and that is to unleash his supporters in the country orchestrating a civil war and arm twist the governance to hold fresh elections. Present circumstances are a pre-cursor to it while more violence is likely to follow.
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