The Rajya Sabha on Wednesday passed the Constitution (124th Amendment) Bill, 2019 to provide 10 per cent reservation in jobs and educational institutions to the economically weaker sections in the general category.
With successful passage of the bill that covers economically weaker sections among the upper castes, the BJP and the Congress have returned to the drawing board to redraw their poll strategy for 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
The BJP, with this political "masterstroke", plans to reach out to over 97 per cent of the electorate. The communities that stand to benefit from the Bill include Brahmins, Marathas, Rajputs, Jats, Bhumihars, Baniyas, Kapus, Kammas, Nairs and Chettiars to name a few.
A day after the Bill was passed in the Lower House, Prime Minister Narendra Modi told a gathering in Solapur that the Bill was being brought in for the sake of social justice, making it amply clear that the BJP will make the legislation a major poll issue.
"By passing the Bill that grants 10 per cent reservation to economically weaker section in the general category, our principle of 'Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas' has been further strengthened," PM Modi said.
But how this is going to play out in 2019 Lok Sabha elections is anybody's guess. Already, a churning of thoughts has started among the upper castes. A narrative has started building up if this will help the minorities, especially Muslims, hog maximum benefits as a significant number don't file IT returns and do not own big houses and big lands.
The RJD, the leading party in Bihar, has demanded an increase in OBC reservation based on population and wants the ceiling to be raised from 27% to more than 50%. Tamil Nadu's AIADMK and DMK have termed it as an anti-Dalit and pro-Brahminical move. The Left parties are also planning to "expose" the Bill as anti-people.
BJP hopes that the reservation Bill will set right the arithmetic for itself in the Lok Sabha elections. BJP vice-president, Avinash Rai Khanna said, "The Bill will benefit a class of people who have waiting for the last 70 years. When they will thank the party, we will accept it humbly with open arms."
However, there are also apprehensions within the BJP that the Supreme Court may set aside the Bill as it crosses the 50% mark. The government may face a legal battle ahead. But it hopes that by that time the general elections would be over.
The Congress has decided to wait and watch how the situation pans out in the coming weeks. A senior leader, who was a student leader during the Mandal Commission unrest said that Constitutional Amendment is unlikely to survive the Indira Sahani judgment. "In addition, the 50% reservation also faults on Article 14, as the constitutional scheme as it stands does not provide reservation on the basis of income," said the leader.
The Congress will build its narrative, as stated by Kapil Sibal in Rajya Sabha, on the lack of creation of jobs and the lack of any empirical data that provides data and figures on the ceiling of income and land limit.
The Trinamool Congress, too, will build on the failure of Modi government to create jobs. Senior leader Dinesh Trivedi said the government should have focussed on creating jobs, and that the Bill was purely a political one.
Many Opposition parties are planning to term it as another 'jumla' by the Modi government and compare it with other "failed" schemes.
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