2019 Lok Sabha polls: SP, BSP finalise UP seat sharing sans Congress; announcement on Mayawati's birthday

The favourable election results in three states - Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh - have not upped the Congress' stature among its potential alliance partners in the neighbouring Uttar Pradesh where the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have all but sealed a pre-poll understanding. 

According to sources, the two parties have been in talks for seat sharing for almost a year and have finalised their formula. The two parties will contest elections on equal seats, sources told Zee News. The Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which has its base in western UP, will also be a part of the alliance. An official announcement is likely to be made in this regard on January 15, 2019, when BSP supremo Mayawati celebrates her birthday, sources said. 

This comes in the backdrop of both SP chief Akhilesh Yadav and BSP supremo Mayawati skipping the oath-taking ceremonies of the three Congress chief ministers. 

Akhilesh Yadav on Tuesday also disagreed with DMK president MK Stalin's proposal to project Congress president Rahul Gandhi as the prime ministerial candidate for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, saying it was not necessarily the alliance's opinion.

"West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, NCP leader Sharad Pawar and others had tried to bring all the leaders together to form an alliance ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. If someone (Stalin) is giving his opinion on the PM candidate, it is not necessary that all alliance partners have the same opinion," Yadav said. 

A coming together of the BSP and SP is likely to dent the BJP's prospects in the state which has 80 Lok Sabha seats, highest among the states, where it won 73 seats with its partner. The strength of SP-BSP alliance was on display earlier this year when they snatched Gorakhpur and the Phulpur Lok Sabha seats from the BJP in the bypolls. Later, the RLD defeated BJP to take control of Kairana Lok Sabha seat.

According to a ZEE-VMR analysis after assembly election results in 5 states, BJP is likely to lose 50 seats in north India if all SP, BSP and Congress join hands. 

North India has a total of 10 states, with 172 seats. In 2014, the BJP won 137 of them and Congress 9. Based on state results, it’s estimated that the BJP will win only 87 seats while Congress will get around 30. If we include allies, then the total count for NDA will go up to 91. However, UPA – Congress, SP and BSP combined – could see their total count go up to 76. Others, non-NDA and non-UPA parties could get 5 seats.

Earlier in August, top Congress sources had said that it was a part of the UP seat sharing and the deal was virtually sealed with SP and BSP.