DNA Exclusive: Can ‘freebies’ boost AAP’s national expansion plans in Gujarat and Himachal polls?

Having entered the national political arena with a loud roar in Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party’s ambitions will be put to test in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh later this year. Arvind Kejriwal’s intent is loud and clear -- turning every election where there is a direct fight between the BJP and Congress into a triangular contest.  

The only difference is that the battle in the two poll-bound states will not be the same as Punjab, where the BJP has a minimal existence, the Congress had lost its shine and the Badals struggle for an image makeover. 

In Gujarat -- Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state -- the BJP has been in power for three decades and is now eyeing a seventh straight win while the Congress remains the prime opposition party ever since. Himachal Pradesh, on the other hand, has an electoral history alternating mandate between the BJP and the Congress.

While the AAP may not be able to defeat the BJP, it will dent eat into the Congress’ votes — more in Gujarat and less in Himachal Pradesh, opines political commentator Amitabh Tiwari, who further says that AAP’s politics has emerged as more “Left-leaning”, thereby sharing the same electoral space as the Congress. 

Kejriwal recently announced free electricity up to 300 units per month to each household in Gujarat if voted to power. He also said that education and health services will be free for all in the country if, by god's will, he is in a position to do so. 

Reacting to PM Modi’s "revadi culture" culture of offering freebies for getting votes, Kejriwal said that free education, healthcare and bus travel for women were not freebies, waiving loans of friends and getting them tenders worth thousands of crores of rupees were "free ki revadi". 

The fact which needs to be acknowledged here is that the strategy has worked for Kejriwal, first in retaining power in Delhi and then dethroning the Congress in Punjab. 

However, it may not yield the same result in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. “AAP freebies politics may not work in Himachal and Gujarat as Himachal has a high per capita income and Gujarat is one of India’s top industrial states. AAP will need to tweak its strategy in states which are comparatively well off,” Tiwari told DNA India. 

Meanwhile, the BJP not only remains confident of retaining power in the two states, but also dismissive of the Aam Aadmi Party, which it claims will meet the same fate as it did in Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur in the Assembly polls earlier this year. 

‘Spoiler’ in Gujarat?

Despite the BJP downplaying the AAP’s freebies strategy, the ruling party itself appears to have taken a leaf out of Arvind Kejriwal’s book in its last Budget. 

The government promised free of cost Wi-Fi facilities in 4,000 villages, free monthly supply of Rs 1 kg pigeon pea or tuver dal, 2 kg of gram and 1 kg edible oil to pregnant women and lactating mothers for 1000 days. 

It also announced several other free cost services such Rs 54 crore to provide one drum and two plastic baskets free of cost to farmers for multipurpose uses, Rs 122 crore for free lodging and boarding facilities for 27,000 girls studying in 245 Kasturba Gandhi Vidyalaya in remote and interior areas, Rs 145 crore for free textbooks to students of "all castes" studying in government and grant in aid secondary and higher secondary schools. 

Experts believe that the move is clearly aimed at neutralising the AAP’s freebies promises to woo the voters. 

In the 2017 Assembly polls, the BJP struggled overcoming anti-incumbency and only somehow managed to retain power. Amid the Patidar and Una agitations, it failed to perform well in the rural-farmer and tribal belts. 

While the anti-incumbency remains there, there is no such agitation this time. Adding to that, Patidar leader Hardik Patel’s induction has come as a shot in the arm for the BJP which hopes to get more votes from the community this time. 

Patidars, which account for 19 per cent votes in Gujarat, play a key role in determining Assembly polls in 71 of the state’s total 182 constituencies. This agrarian community has always been a key support base for the BJP.

Kejriwal’s party, on the other hand, pins its hopes on the 2021 performance in the Surat Municipal Corporation polls where it bagged 27 seats, leaving the Congress drawing a blank. 

The BJP clinched the SMC, but the AAP got the main Opposition’s space vacated by the Congress.    

While the AAP may not be able to garner many seats, “it will definitely play the role of a spoiler,” Tiwari says.  “Along with the freebies appeal for the rural, the AAP’s overall electoral appeal has been majorly urban-centric,” he said, adding that the party is making desperate attempts to woo the tribal community as well.

Freebies to counter freebies in Himachal

Here too, the ruling party seems to be trading cautiously as the AAP appears to be making inroads. Earlier this year, the government announced free power up to 150 units, bus tickets at 50 per cent fare for women and free water in villages. 

Aam Aadmi Party was quick to pounce upon the announcement made by Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur and said that Kejriwal’s one roadshow in Mandi had prompted the BJP to announce “freebies that they otherwise deride”.    

For the BJP, the electoral battle in the hill state will not be the same as Gujarat. Here, the ruling party not only faces a stronger anti-incumbency wave but also struggles with the absence of its conventional game-changer -- Prem Kumar Dhumal -- who went into political exile after facing defeat in the last Assembly polls. 

On the other hand, the Congress will contesting for the first time in last three decades without former CM Virbhadra Singh, who passed away last year, leaving the party bereft of an effective second rung of leadership.

Despite the BJP and Congress being on tough ground in Himachal, experts believe that AAP’s impact there will be minimal, given the fact that the contest in the hill state is still fairly bipolar.