Kremlin drone attack: Truth vs myths about 'attack' on Vladimir Putin

The ongoing Russia Ukraine conflict took an ugly turn when on 03rd May 2023, Russia accused Ukraine of attacking the Kremlin, the residence of its president Vladimir Putinusing two drones. While as per Russian claims, the drones were destroyed, Moscow is considering this act as an attempt on the life of their president. Within hours of the attack, Dmitri Medvedev, an ex-president, and current deputy chairman of Russia’s security council declared that this action from Ukraine has left Russia with no options but to eliminate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Russia has already expressed its intentions by launching a major attack in Kherson killing 21 people. Although Zelenskyy, who is currently visiting Hague, capital of the Netherlands, has denied Ukrainian involvement in the attack, this event and its implications are to be analyzed in detail before reaching any conclusion.

It has been more than 14 months since the war started in Eastern Europe. Russia captured large swathes of territories, almost the entire Ukrainian agricultural belt, majority of their mining areas and destroyed the entire industrial set up of Kyiv. It is perceived that war has pushed Ukraine into primitive ages and it will take nearly 30 years to rebuild the country. While analyzing the incident, it is pertinent to find the answers to a few questions.

Does Ukraine have the capability to target Moscow?

During the entire duration of the war, the Ukrainian capabilities to target deep into Russia are under question. Even someof the western experts as well as Ukrainian officials have denied Kyiv having such long range strike capabilities, but the facts reveal a different story. On 01st March 2023, Russian authorities reported the crash of a Ukrainian drone in Gubastovo Village in the outskirts of Moscow. The drone was identified as a UJ-22 drone made by Ukrainian company UKRJET. The drone has arange of over 800 Kms and can carry a payload of over 20Kgs. It’s a slow-moving drone which can fool the anti-aircraft systems. Ukraine has several other drones of similar capacity too. With this logic, it is absolutely clear that Ukraine has both the capability and hardware to penetrate deep into Russia.

Was it an attack ora message to Russia?

Targeting the Russian president using a small drone and that too in a heavily fortified Kremlin area raises another question. Even if we believe that the attack was orchestrated by Kyiv, only a fool will make such afailed attempt. Under all probabilities, there are very bleak chances that Ukraine wanted to kill President Vladimir Putin. It looks like Ukraine wanted to convey a message to Russia that we are now capable of targeting even Moscow, so beware. We must also understand that the denial statement of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy came only after Dmitri Medvedev openly issued a threat to his life. So, it could be out of fear of an escalation too.

What if the attack is staged by Russia itself?

As the war is prolonged and the Russian economy is under high pressures, it is highly possible that in order to justify its all-out offensive against Ukraine, Russia might have stage-managed this attack itself. Many strategic experts are of the same opinion too. Under such circumstances, the onus now lies on Russia to prove that the attack was launched by Ukraine. They should produce parts, identification marks or any other electronic evidence to prove their stance. This becomes more important in the event of denial from President Zelenskyy himself. While any evidence from the Russian side will justify their stance, no proof will also put a question markover Moscow’s intentions.

Will it start a dangerous trend of eliminating leaders?

No matter who carried out the attack or what was the damage, the event is going to trigger a dangerous trend of targeting the leaders of both the countries. While Russia openly announced it, Ukraine will not stay idle either. While Russia has nothing more to lose as itis already under all possible sanctions, Ukraine will go into chaos if its leaders are eliminated. Russian forces and their intelligence are notorious for carrying out political assassinations and have experience of several decades.Ukraine will not have a chance against Russia if this trend starts, however, everything is a matter of speculation as of now.

What would be the reaction of the West?

Another serious question is what will be the reaction of the West if Russia uses all its might to attack Ukraine? It is noteasy to comprehend. Theoretically the west is supporting Ukraine in all possible ways but practically they are fed up with this prolonged war. They knew it and thus never got militarily involved anticipating the wrath of Russia. Ukraine, which used to get state of the art weapons and equipment in the start of war, is now supplied with old, rusty, obsolete, and surplus weapons from America and Europe. Recently they were denied the supply of F-16 Fighter aircrafts too. This shows that the west is no longer standing firm with Ukraine and will leave itat the mercy of God in case Russia launches a major offensive. To summarize the issue, it is obvious that Ukraine has the capability to strike Moscow and at the sametime, there are possibilities that the attack could be orchestrated by Kyiv orby Moscow itself. However, the matter of concern is not the attack or whocarried out the attack but the upcoming Russian all-out offensive as Moscow is now getting ready to target Ukrainian leaders. This dangerous trend to targetthe leaders of the countries is going to affect the reaction of the global diaspora.However, one thing is sure, while Russia can be termed as an aggressor, Ukraine will be the ultimate loser in this war.