China's brazen ambitions in Indian Ocean decoded

The Indian Ocean, for the last decade, has witnessed increased deployment of CCP vessels in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The trend analysis of the deployment highlights the presence of three to four warships, two to three auxiliary vessels and many other ships deployed at any time in the IOR. Whilst probably, these are for safeguarding Chinese trade interest since approximately 80 percent of Beijing’s oil and 60 percent of other goods are transmitted via the IOR, increasingly it’s also seen as a tactic to promote their ambitions in this space and to counter India’s influence in the IOR.

In 2016, China built its logistic facility/support base in Djibouti, which has actually transformed into a full-fledged naval base to support its strategy in the IOR. Further, the establishment of multiple ports in and around IOR testify to the perceived threat. It’s widely perceived that the establishment and subsequent expansion such as transformation of Djibouti as a complete naval base; the docking of satellite tracking ship ‘Yuan Wang 5’ in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port; extended deployment of surveillance ship Hai Yang Shi You in the garb of research and survey, Surveillance vessel Xiang Yang Hong 10 along with at least eight of its maritime militia ships operating close to Indian-ASEAN naval drill region on 08 May 2023 and reports on the potential deployment of CCP Navy at Pakistan’s Gwadar port, reveal Beijing’s intention of undermining New Delhi’s influence in the Indian Ocean through intimidation. Not stopping at this, the Mandarin naming of 19 sea-bed features in the Indian Ocean project Beijing’s soft power approach in the Indian Ocean Region. 

The modernisation project of the PLA since 2015 is a well thought of strategy and subsequently the CCP has invested heavily in the development of niche military technology and hardware. However, not everything is hunky dory as per internal reports. As per PLA Daily, the Chinese military seem to admit to various germane issues such as poor skill set, poor maintenance and ban on military technology and imports by the West. In a report titled, “Equipment Awaiting Talent”, the scarcity in terms of skilled personnel to handle the newly developed high-tech modern equipment was reported. This reveals a grave challenge on part of the PLA Navy, possessing the largest navy in the world in terms of numbers. The training resource imbalance is predicted to halt Beijing from utilising its “state of the art” military equipment to its maximum potential.

While the PLA Navy is reported to face capability imbalance, Japan is seen to acquire newer capabilities in recent years. The new National Security Strategy of Tokyo’s Self Defence Forces (SDF). released in December 2022, outlines the country’s new defence plan. The strategy recognises threats from China and North Korea to be “of particular concern” and aims to double its defence budget to two per cent of its GDP, moving towards a more pre-emptive approach than its previous defensive operations. Like China, the Indian Ocean holds strategic significance for Japan as a critical sea line of communication in order to transport fossil-fuel-based energy. It has been an active member of QUAD and actively engaged in IOR with the Indian Navy. India’s rightful tactic of cooperation and collaboration without giving in to Beijing’s power game, assumes significance in present South Asian regional context.

China’s overassertive presence in the Indian Ocean, which partly reflects its underlying sense of insecurity, has been perceived negatively by most countries in the region and especially by countries with significant power-presence in this oceanic space. It is time China should wake up to this reality and operate in a more consultative and less threatening manner shedding its arrogance as a major power, which can have its way in the most brazen manner.

The writer is a veteran of the Indian Navy. Views expressed are his own.