Uphill battle for BJP, Congress in Meghalaya

Meghalaya's electorate is divided into two regions, populated with three major communities — the Khasi-Jaintia Hills with the Khasi and Jaintia people and the Garo Hills with the Garo people. Garo Hills have always had a strong influence in the state's electoral landscape. In its four-decade history, the region has given the state five chief ministers, including the first — Williamson Sangma.

This time too, the fight has boiled down between CM Mukul Sangma and Conrad Sangma of the Nationalist People's Party (NPP), floated by former Lok Sabha speaker PA Sangma. Yet, the killing of Nationalist Congress Party's Williamnagar candidate Jonathone Sangma in an IED blast and then firing has brought the focus back to the threat of militancy in the region. The police believed that the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) was behind the attack, and on Sunday Meghalaya police claimed that GNLA chief Sohan D Shira was killed in encounter.

While the BJP's pronounced policies on beef and its leaders' non-Hindu positions may have worked to its benefit across the country's northern regions, in Meghalaya it seems to have found a nemesis of sorts. In a state where most of the population is Christian — Catholic, Baptist and Presbyterian — Meghalaya is proving to be a formidable roadblock to the BJP. The party sent in cabinet minister KJ Alphons, its lone Christian face, to woo the voters.

But the denial of a visa to Reverend Paul Msiza, who was to visit Garo Hills for the 150-year celebration of Baptism's entry in the region, might have electoral consequences. Leaders like Amit Shah and Alphons have been speaking to embarrassingly small crowds in poll meetings.

The Congress, on the other hand, is facing stiff anti-incumbency despite some strong development numbers. 

While the state has made great strides in health and education, CM Sangma has been facing opposition within his own party. Eight of the party's MLAs moved to the NPP. The insistence on a non-Garo face has been growing louder, and from the outset, it looks like Shillong LS MP Vincent Pala will benefit from it. For the Congress, the state is the second after Gujarat where the party has invested in a continued push.

Regional party NPP, led by PA Sangma's son Conrad, has over the last few years emerged as the key contender to the Congress. From just two MLAs in 2013, the party looks poised to play spoilsport to the Congress. Yet, its alliance with the BJP in Rajasthan and then in Manipur might affect its electoral chances. Congress president Rahul Gandhi has accused the party of being a front for the BJP.

Other regional parties — the Hill State People's Democratic Party (HSPDP) and United Democratic Party (UDF) — with sizeable influence in the Khasi-Jaintia Hills are also well placed to upset either the Congress or the BJP.

STATUS QUO OF PARTIES

• In a state where most of the population is Christian — Catholic, Baptist and Presbyterian — Meghalaya is proving to be a formidable roadblock to the BJP.
   
• The Congress is facing stiff anti-incumbency despite some strong development numbers. The insistence on a non-Garo face has been growing louder.
   
• Regional party NPP has, over the last few years, emerged as the key contender to the Congress. From just two MLAs in 2013, the party looks poised to play spoilsport to the Congress.