The Modi wave: How one man turned BJP's fortune

Since the BJP won the Lok Sabha elections in 2014, it has expanded its base, perhaps for the first time capable of challenging the Congress party on a pan-India basis. Over the past four years, 23 states have gone to polls. Barring two resounding defeats in Delhi and Bihar, the party has been on a wining spree— all thanks to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has gone whole hog in politics, regardless of the grime and dust, election after election.

His party leadership — rooted in Hindutva and grounded in governance — has directed electoral strategies successfully. In a politically-fragmented country with diverse and conflicting interests, the Modi government has been able to instill and sense of confidence and carry forward the concept of dynamic India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah have put together a playbook that has been widely successful, turning huge swathes of the country saffron over the past four years. Put together, that means the BJP is now in power, either directly or through an alliance, in 22 out of India's 29 states. In Amit Shah's words: "We have an MP in Ladakh and Kerala. We have a government in Kohima and Kutch." For a party that was once confined to the so-called cow belt and states where Hindi was the primary language, the BJP is now the dominant electoral player in every region of the country.

Analysts believe that it is not only Modi's strong leadership or his oratory skills that ensured electoral success. It had to more with his style of governance and an image of a hard task master, who keeps a close watch on almost all that his government does. As he gives a push to infrastructure — roads, railways, freight corridors, ports, airports, telecom networks, info-tech systems, toilets, and more — he has attempted to provide almost equal impetus to social sector schemes. The Prime Minister has turned the focus of attention to India's have-nots, plugging leakages in welfare schemes and pushing for last-mile delivery.

His connect with the marginalised yet aspiring classes of the country coupled with his refusal to confine himself to Lutyens' Delhi, has helped him to maintain a chord with the poor. Modi's image among the aspiring lower-income groups as a man on a mission to change India and as a moderniser has helped him not only win votes, but also govern the country with the resolve of a leader aware of the strength of his backing.

Observers say his ability to detach himself from the excesses of power, which he combines with an inclination to question old attitudes and unsettle the bureaucracy, is also commendable. In the past four years, Modi has been able to bring back the PMO to the centre stage of governance. The PMO keeps a tab on each major decision, even as channels of communication with the party are kept open so as to allow the government and the party to work in tandem. The processes of governance and politics has been linked to operate in unison. This system of governing the country, ministers say, is designed to bring gains for both the ruling party and the people at large.

While the Opposition is out with its list of Modi's failures, pointing at statistics on falling job market and declining economic growth, the government is banking on highlighting its pro-poor image. It is counting on its flagship schemes to spell hope for the impoverished. Of the 60-odd government schemes launched since independence, about one-fourth have been rolled out by the Modi Government. "After independence, one of the greatest challenges was identifying real beneficiaries, essentially weeding out undeserving candidates, and making the processes transparent," says Dharmendra Pradhan, Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas. According to the minister, the Ujwala scheme's aim to use LPG as a catalyst for social change is revolutionising the rural household. "It is not merely a new gas connection, but a tool to enhance the health and socio-economic indicators for women from the less-privileged sections of society," he said.

Launched two years ago in Ballia, an economically-backward district of eastern UP on the Bihar border, the Ujjwala scheme was seen as a significant factor of the BJP sweep in the state polls last year. The party, which holds 69 of the 85 reserved Assembly seats in UP, captured a large chunk of the BSP's Dalit vote. While BSP chief Mayawati focused on Jatavs and Chamars, anti-Dalits moved aligned with the BJP. Similarly, among the OBCs — who constitute around half the country's population — Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party concentrated on Yadavs in the state (which has over 70 OBC castes). This left space for the BJP to reach out to its Most Backward Castes (MBCs). The party also has all of UP's Lok Sabha seats reserved for SC candidates. For 2019, thus, the party needs similar, if not greater SC and OBC support.

One of the schemes the BJP is expected to flaunt in the run-up to 2019 elections is village electrification, a promise made four years ago. Another major attraction has been the government's medical insurance scheme, popularly called ModiCare. This is likely to feature prominently in the BJP's self-appraisal ahead of 2019.

Ironically, while the BJP has managed to win state after state since 2014, and has continued its unique record of losing all by-elections to Lok Sabha seats. While Samajwadi Party candidates won two crucial parliamentary constituencies — Gorakhpur and Phulpur — from the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP has lost 19 other by-elections as well. In Bihar, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) managed to retain the Araria Lok Sabha seat vacated due to the death of its MP Taslimuddin. Also, its relations to the allies is showing strain. One of its major ally — the TDP — has already walked away from the BJP-led NDA. The Shiv Sena in Maharashtra has put the BJP on notice; its leaders are unhappy with the BJP and the PM's "arrogant" leadership style. The Sena announced in January 2018, that it would rather contest the 2019 elections alone, than in alliance with the BJP. These ruptures, while not fatal or irreversible, potentially complicate the BJP's electoral arithmetic for 2019. A clear warning shot was fired in December 2017, during elections in Gujarat — a longtime BJP bastion. Although it retained its majority in the state Assembly, the BJP encountered serious rural opposition — especially in the key Saurashtra region —where the Congress prevailed by capitalising on caste politics and the waning fortunes of farmers.

Karnataka's fractured mandate and BJP's failure to hold on to power even after emerging as the single largest party will have a far-reaching impact on national politics and alliances that will be formed to take on Modi in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This election has also showed that regional players could give the BJP a run for its money in their respective states. The BJP's yet undeclared mission for the 2019 general elections is winning 350 seats on its own — more than its 2014 figure. Much of its success or failure, however, depends on the sustenance of 'Modi wave', social engineering, and its foray in the south and north-east to compensate the losses made in the North.