After high decibel and vicious electoral campaign, people in five states surprised political parties and pundits by driving Congress to a decisive win in Chhattisgarh, Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) in Telangana and Mizo National Front (MNF) in Mizoram.
The electorates also voted against the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, albeit not as decisively as expected. Madhya Pradesh, in particular, turned out to be a cliffhanger despite three terms of anti-incumbency leaving out some hope for the BJP that all is not lost.
The fortunes of the two parties — BJP and Congress — were still engaged in a see-saw tussle at the time of this report going to press. The Congress may have to approach Mayawati's BSP and Samajwadi Party for a supporting hand; both parties are likely to extend it given the need to strengthen their anti-BJP posturing in Uttar Pradesh next year.
The battle in Rajasthan, which was considered a cakewalk for Congress, could not turn into the icing on the cake: The message was that the party will have to sort out its internal bickering and distribute tickets more wisely in the future and look around for a coalition in 2019.
The Congress now faces the difficult task of picking chief ministers in all three states. The decision seems straightforward in Chhattisgarh: Bhupesh Baghel was given a difficult task in a strongly-entrenched Raman Singh-government, and he delivered more than expected.
The choice in MP and Rajasthan is trickier, both states have two CM candidates each in Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia, and Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot.
As per party sources, old guards Nath and Gehlot, are the favourites. Though both were late entrants and chosen just before going the whole hog in the electoral campaign, they delivered results.
While basking in the glory of three important wins, the Congress will also have to reflect deeply on the drubbing it faced in Mizoram and Telangana.
The party does not rule a single state in the northeast, where 25 Lok Sabha seats will be up for stakes.
The results have broken the myth of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's invincibility and his charisma and propelled Rahul Gandhi to centre-stage as the main face of the opposition. Vote share analysis shows that some smaller parties and independents have managed to get more votes.
While Bahujan Samaj Party had got 4.3 per cent in Chhattisgarh in 2013, its alliance with former chief minister Ajit Jogi's party has now got about 11 per cent of the votes. Independent candidates have also improved their performance from 5.3 per cent to 6.3 per cent.
A similar trend was visible in Rajasthan where BJP's votes have fallen from 45.2 per cent in 2013 to 38.8 per cent in these polls. It stood at nearly 55 per cent in 2014 when the party won all 25 Lok Sabha seats from the state.
On the other hand, Congress has improved its vote share from 33.1 per cent in 2013 to 39.2 per cent in 2018. It had managed to get nearly 30 per cent votes, despite losing all seats in the last parliamentary elections.
Independent candidates have improved their assembly tally from 8.2 per cent to 9.5 per cent, while bagging a larger number of seats.
The vote share situation is the most interesting in Madhya Pradesh, which saw the closest fight between the Congress and the BJP. The Congress's share has improved from 36.4 per cent in 2013 to 41.4 per cent in 2018 Assembly polls, while that of the BJP has come down from 44.9 per cent to 41.3 per cent, as per the latest update.
BSP's share has actually fallen to 4.6 per cent, while that of the independents has remained nearly the same at over 5 per cent. However, other smaller parties have made gains. In Telangana, the TRS is returning to power with a bigger mandate and a rise in its vote share from nearly 34 per cent last time to about 47 per cent. The Congress has also improved from 25.2 per cent to 28.7 per cent, though its newly-found ally TDP, which was earlier with BJP, has taken a beating.
BJP's vote share in Telangana has remained almost static at about 7 per cent if compared to the Assembly elections in 2014 but has come down drastically with respect to 2014 Lok Sabha when it secured 10.4 per cent.
BREAKING
- Kamal Nath writes to MP governor seeking appointment to stake claim to form Govt in MP
- The veteran leader says the Congress has emerged as the single-largest party with majority support
- Email apart, the party says it will also get a hard copy of the letter sent to Governor’s office
DAY OF HUMILITY, GRATITUDE
Mudslinging that marked the campaigning melts away, with BJP and Congress reserving kind words for each other for the D-day
WHY...
- Madhya Pradesh Farm distress and anti-incumbency pull down BJP’s numbers, help Congress
- Chhattisgarh Anti-incumbency hits Raman Singh govt; Congress’s soft-Hindutva push works
- Rajasthan Anger among Jats, Rajputs against Vasundhara Raje govt; anti-incumbency
- Telangana Populist policies, development card pave way for a sweep by TRS
- Mizoram Mizo National Front romps home with the backing of the Church
QUOTES
"We accept the people’s mandate with humility. I thank the people of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan for giving us the opportunity to serve these states"
— Narendra Modi, Prime Minister
I want to express my gratitude to the CMs. We will take their work forward. We now have a lot of work to do in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and hopefully in Madhya Pradesh
— Rahul Gandhi, Congress president
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