DNA Special: Zee Opinion Poll – Hung Assembly in Punjab this time?

The Punjab elections are very crowded this time. The election match will be played between three teams instead of two in the state, and this match can go up to the super over as well. All three parties can reach a position to form the government. And that is why there are chances of a hung Assembly in the state this time.

But to understand Punjab, you first have to understand the status of its three regions.

Malwa

Malwa region, which has the highest number of 69 seats in 15 districts, including Ferozepur, where the PM’s security lapse took place. Besides, districts like Ludhiana, Fatehgarh Sahib, Moga, Sangrur and Patiala also fall in the same region. This area is very important for two more reasons. Firstly, all the Chief Ministers of Punjab in the last 30 years were from this region. Secondly, it is said that the highest number of farmers in the farmers' movement reached the borders of Delhi from this area.

Punjab's largest farmers' organisation, Bharatiya Kisan Union Ugrahan and United Kisan Morcha, also come from Malwa. All the big faces of all the parties in Punjab are from here, from CM Charanjeet Singh Channi, Akali Dal leader Sukhbir Badal, former CM Captain Amarinder Singh and AAP leader Bhagwant Mann come from Malwa region.

In 2017, the Congress got the highest number of votes here at about 37 percent. The Akali Dal got 26 percent, the Aam Aadmi Party 27 percent and the BJP 3 percent. But according to Zee News opinion polls, this time the Congress could suffer a lot in the region. This time the congress vote share is only to 29 percent. Congress party seems to be losing 8 percent of the votes here.

On the one hand, the vote share of the Aam Aadmi Party is projected to increase by 9 percent, from 27 percent to 36 percent. That is, almost as many votes are being lost by the Congress. The simple calculation is that AAP is giving a tremendous blow to the Congress in Malwa this time. The Akali Dal is expected to get 26 percent votes this time too. BJP's vote share may go up by one percent in this region to 3 to 4 percent.

In terms of seats, the Congress won 40 of Malwa's 69 seats in 2017. Aam Aadmi Party got 18 seats, Akali Dal 8 and BJP one seat. But according to opinion polls, the number of seats will change completely this time. This time, Congress may get 19 to 21 seats in the region, Akali Dal 13 to 14 seats, Aam Aadmi Party 28 to 30 seats and BJP 2 to 3 seats.

That is, the biggest loser is Congress. Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party is likely to become the largest party in Malwa. The important thing here is that the party that wins in Malwa is most likely to form the government after the elections.

Majha

Majha region of Punjab is identified for historical Gurudwaras. There is the Golden Temple and Kartarpur Corridor of Amritsar. There are a total of 25 seats in the region. And last time the region was completely in the name of the Congress.

In 2017, Congress got 46 per cent votes, Akali Dal 25 per cent, Aam Aadmi Party 14 per cent and BJP 10 per cent. But in opinion polls, the Congress vote share in Majha may come down by 13 per cent to 33 per cent this time. Aam Aadmi Party's vote share may go up by almost the same to 26 per cent. That is, in Majha, like Malwa, the Aam Aadmi Party is seeing the benefit of the same number of votes as the Congress is losing. Moreover, the Akali Dal's vote share may also go up from 25 to 31 per cent while BJP's vote share may come down from 10 to 6 per cent.

Last time BJP and Akali Dal contested in alliance. But this time both the parties are contesting separate elections. And opinion polls suggest that the BJP is losing it while the support given by the Akali Dal to the Kisan Andolan seems to be beneficial.

In 2017, the Congress won 22 of Majha's 25 seats. The Akali Dal got two seats and the BJP one seat. While the Aam Aadmi Party did not even open its account. But the Zee News's opinion poll says that this time, the Congress could lose 12 to 13 seats here. The Congress is expected to get only 9 to 10 seats this time. While the Akali Dal may gain 6 to 7 seats. The number of Akali Dal seats can go up from 9 to 10, that is, equal to the Congress. In addition, Aam Aadmi Party may get 5 to 6 seats. Last time he did not get a single seat. BJP is expected to get one to two seats.

Now let's show you the opinion poll of Doaba, the third and last region of Punjab. Doaba means an area situated between two rivers. These are the Sutlej and Beas rivers. Hindu and Dalit Sikh voters are considered to have a lot of influence in this region. Doaba has 23 seats in four districts.

In 2017, the Congress got 37 per cent of the votes here. Aam Aadmi Party got 24 per cent, Akali Dal 21 per cent and BJP 9 per cent. But according to opinion polls, the Congress' vote share may be reduced by 7 per cent this time. It can come down from 37 per cent to 30 per cent. While the Akali Dal in this region can overtake all the parties, it can remain number one. The Akali Dal is projected to get 33 per cent votes here. Aam Aadmi Party may get about 25 per cent votes and BJP 7 per cent as last time. BJP is losing 2 per cent votes here also. However, BJP seats may remain the same as in 2017

This time the Congress is likely to get 7 to 8 of the 25 seats in Doaba. Last time it got 15 seats. While the Akali Dal is projected to gain seats as compared to 2017 with 9 to 11 seats here. It got only 5 seats in 2017. Aam Aadmi Party may get 3 to 4 seats and BJP may get one to two seats.

Opinion polls of all the 117 seats in Punjab - Vote share

In 2017, Congress got 39 per cent, Akali Dal 25 per cent, Aam Aadmi Party 24 per cent and BJP 5 per cent. But according to opinion polls, the Congress is likely to get 30 per cent of the votes this time, the Aam Aadmi Party is projected to get 33 per cent, the Akali Dal 26 per cent and the BJP 6 per cent. That is, the vote share of all parties except the Congress seems to be increasing.

The mathematics of seats

Punjab has a total of 117 seats, out of which 59 seats are required for a majority. The number was easily crossed by the Congress in 2017. The Congress got 77 seats, the Akali Dal got 15 seats, the Aam Aadmi Party got 20 seats, the BJP got 3 seats and others got 2 seats.

But this time the contest may be tough and perhaps no party will touch the majority mark. The Congress is likely to get 35 to 38 seats this time. The Akali Dal is projected to get 32 to 35 seats, Aam Aadmi Party 36 to 39 seats and BJP 4 to 7 seats. That is, no party has a majority in the opinion polls.