Decoding Sudan crisis: Another bloody chapter from Africa

Current crisis in Sudan which started on April 15, 2023 is drawing the attention of entire world. In just four days of intense fighting between two military groups, over 200 people have officially been killed and over 1800 have been injured. However, these are not the accurate figures and denote the number of killed or injured which could reach the red cross hospitals across the country. Eyewitnesses confirmed that several hundred more are killed whose bodies are littered in different areas where clashes took place.

Sudan can effectively be called as land of conflicts as the country had witnessed numerous ethnic conflicts right from 1500 BC when the locals rebelled against the Egyptian rule. The fall of blood on the Saharan sands has not stopped ever. Since 1956 AD, when Sudan became independent, it has witnessed numerous wars, conflicts & clashes resulting in the death of several millions of its natives. One thing was common among all clashes- All of themincluding the current crisis took place to gain power. Let us decode the present crisis and its repercussions.

Roots and Parties to the conflict- The root to the current conflict goes back to the military coup of 1989 where Brigadier Omar al-Bashir seized the power and ousted the government of Prime Minister Sadiq al-Mahdi. Bashir created a team of 15 Army officers to run the country and enforces a totalitarian regime which prohibits all kinds of opposition to the government.  He ruled the country for over three decades till he was removed in another coup in 2019. Lt Gen Ahmed Awed ibn Auf who was deputy to Bashir seized the power and declared himself as the de-facto head of the government. in 2021, Lt Gen Ahmed Auf handed over the power to another Military General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan who is the current leader of Sudan.

Another party to the current crisis is General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo who was not only working as the deputy Chairman of the Transitional Military Council but also heading the second most powerful armed group in the country after Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and that is Rapid Support Forces (RSF). RSF is a militia organization which was notorious for Darfur Massacre where over 4 lakh people were killed mercilessly. Over the years, Dagalo amassed huge wealth by running illegal gold mines & was commanding over a Lakh Janjaweed militia. Although the RSF is lesser in number than SAF, but they are much better trained, battle hardened and equipped.

Origin of the current crisis

When General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan took over the reins of the country, he derived a plan to transit the country from over seven decades of military rule and ethnic violence to the path of democracy as per which the power was to be handed over to the democratically elected representatives by end 2023. As part of this process, a formal framework agreement was to be signed on 6^th April 2023 which was delayed by Burhan. Burhan wanted to seize the power and as part of his efforts, not only delayed the signing of framework but also reduced the representation of Dagalo and RSF in the transitional council. The RSF which was supposed to be officially merged with SAF was now left without any future. This came as a trigger after which RSF started deploying its soldiers all across the country and on 15^th April 2023, they all revolted at the sametime resulting in seizing of key airports, gold mines, industrial towns, and revenue sources of the African nation. The common people of Sudan also came out in support of Dagalo and protested all across the nation. Sudanese Armed Forces deployed themselves to suppress the protests resulting in brutal killing of several protesters which further deteriorated the situation.

What RSF and the protestors want

The protesters and RSF have few demands. Firstly, they want RSF to be formally integrated as part of Sudanese Armed Forces. Secondly, the protesters want lucrative military holdings in Trade, Commerce, Industry, Agriculture and Gold Mining to be transferred to civilian leadership. Thirdly, they want strict action against the military officials who were involved in killing of pro-democracy protests over these years and fourthly, they want a fixed timeline for transition towards democracy.

What is the future

Sudan is a volatile region located in the horn of Africa which is strategically important owing to its location in red sea and being the entry route to Suez Canal. A rogue government in Sudan can effectively enforce a blockade in the red sea while a favorable one can support trade. At the same time, the huge mineral wealth of Sudan primarily consisting of Gold, Iron ore, Chromite, Zinc, Aluminum, Nickel, Phosphates and Gypsum is lying unexplored due to continuous civil war and military rule. All global powers are eying to have a slice of it and thus wants a government favorable to them and not favorable to others in Sudan.

Traditionally the military governments of Sudan have been close to erstwhile USSR/ Russia and in the wake of US-Russia enmity, western powers especially United States will do anything to curb Russian influence in the region. China too is eying the mineral wealth of Sudan and investing heavily in the country. The imminent future of this crisis is uncertain, but one thing is sure that Sudan is going to be another region of power crisis between Russian and the western powers and the current situation of Civil war is not going to be resolved early.