Bihar analysis: How PM Modi's goodwill ensured next tenure of not-so-popular Nitish as state CM

How did the NDA reach a majority in Bihar elections? And how did Brand Modi save Nitish Kumar from being expelled from the Chief Minister's office? During the discussion on elections with the people of Bihar in 'Chai par Charcha' and 'Chaupal', when the poor were seen calling PM Modi as God, it seemed that this time he will be the one guiding Nitish Kumar to victory.

During my 30-day election coverage of Bihar, I travelled about 4,465 kilometres. On October 15, I set out from the Delhi office with a cameraman for covering the Bihar elections. By late night, I reached Sasaram, also known as Sher Shah Suri's capital. Seeing the bad road conditions in the city of Sher Shah Suri, who built the Grand Tank Road, talks about development in Bihar seemed to be just promises. 

Held 'Chunavi Chaupal' in Sasaram, Buxar, Ara, Patna and Gaya. But as soon as I arrived in a village in Aurangabad, the influence of the brand Modi began to show. This was the Maya Bigha village in Aurangabad district. By the way, this village is Yadav dominated and most of the people here were RJD supporters. But when I started talking to the farmers and the poor here, they started praising Prime Minister Modi for the double amount of grains and money they received from the Modi government during the coronavirus period. When the Yadavas of the village interfered, they countered it, saying that they will speak if they have got the benefits.

After this, I left Aurangabad for Gaya. On the way, saw agricultural labourers working in the field. Except 1 - 2 of about 15 to 20 farmers, everyone was talking about voting for Modi only on the basis of the fact that they got double grains and Rs 500 in the account. Now it seemed that there was a difference in the thinking of the voters of the city and the village.

During our program in the city, there were mostly party workers or youngsters who were very angry with the Nitish government. Among these, there were youths who were enthusiastic because of Tejashwi Yadav's promise of employment.

Magadha University campus was on the way from Aurangabad to Nawada. I thought, why not do a program with the students and youth here on the issue of employment. The youth were also very angry with the Nitish government here. Most students troubled by Bihar's education system and unemployment were seen talking about change. It was found here that in Bihar nowadays BA degree is given in 5 years instead of 3. The students said that the result of the 2014 SSC examination has not been declared till date. Hearing the students' words, they felt that their anger was justified and the Nitish government would have to bear the brunt of it.

The next stop was Nawada district. After stopping here at night, the chaupal was to be programmed in front of the Nawada Museum at 9 am on the second day. There is the District Congress office just in front of the museum. There was also a rally of Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav on the same day in Nawada. Along with common people, the President of the District Congress also joined the Chaupal, though he was in a hurry. We started the program. There was a fierce debate in support of Tejashwi Yadav and Nitish Kumar. As soon as the President of the District Congress said that Modi ruined the country, a woman who was running a Litti Chokha shop on a nearby cart came to the centre and gave such a reply to the District Congress President that he was left shocked and the people standing there strongly clapped in the way supported the words of the woman. The poor woman said that "In the coronavirus era, we went to all the leaders for help but no one listened to us Modi ji listened to us while sitting in Delhi and got money and food in everyone's account at home." The woman said that "If Modi had not been there, we would have starved to death, Modi is God for us".

After this, I started to feel that poor and agricultural labourers are going to play a big role in Bihar elections. The resentment of the youth from Nitish was indicating a change. But due to the help from the Modi government in the COVID-19 era, the farmer and the poor appeared to stand with Modi and the NDA, with strong strength.

Meanwhile, the first phase of Bihar voting was on 28 October. Started my duty in Ara district. There was a mixed influence in Ara city during voting. But when I reached the booth of the Agiawaan assembly to know the mood of the people, there was a long queue of women voters on one side. Most of the men were angry with Nitish Sarkar and were talking about giving a chance to Tejashwi Yadav, but as soon as I started talking to women, most of the around 100 women standing in line were talking about voting for Modi and some for Nitish.

After the first phase of voting, I decided that now I will do two different chaupals in each city. I started doing chaupal both in the city and the village. Our next stop was Samastipur. Here, in a village of Mussari Gharari, the chaupal was organised with farmers and agricultural labourers. While the farmers were calling the 6 thousand rupees a year from the Modi government to be a Sanjeevani for himself, the women working in the field were talking about voting for money and mentioned gas cylinders and receiving money into the account.

After Samastipur, I set out for Muzaffarpur. Did a chaupal with the students of the Langat Singh College where the first President of India, Dr Rajendra Prasad studied. Everyone was extremely angry with the education policy of the Nitish government. One even said that if the results of elections can come on time then why not the exams. Everywhere, the youth was seen in the mood for change and not at all afraid of Jungle Raj. On the question of Jungleraj, they were seen saying that they should give a chance. If Tejashwi does not work, then we'll change again after 5 years.

After this, I reached my birthplace Champaran. The block chief of Sangrampur block of Motihari district is my uncle. I reached there at 11 o'clock in the night when my uncle was sitting and talking with the people of different panchayats. I also sat down. Some people were saying there's a tough fight between RJD and BJP on the basis of caste equation. Then my uncle said in Bhojpuri that "Listen to me. The poor and the women are with all Modi. Money arrives directly in the account of the poor and they get food grains. No matter what people say, poor and women will vote for Modi only." NDA won 9 out of 12 seats in East Champaran. This is considered the best performance of NDA in Bihar.

Now I reached the Raxaul border for Chaupal. Here, something wonderful happened. A citizen of Nepal could not stop himself after seeing the picture of Prime Minister Modi on our standee during the chaupal. He took the mic from us and started shouting "Modi hai to mumkin hai" (If Modi's there, it's possible). I asked him the reason and people from both India and Nepal said in a note that "Border is safe because of Modi".

At my last stop of electoral coverage, I went for a chaupal in a treacherous area of ​​Balmikinagar. The night was accompanied by a cultural program with tribal people. It included both men and women of Mahadeva village. It must have been at 8 o'clock at night. During the chaupal, when I asked a woman in Bhojpuri whose will form government in Bihar this time, the woman gave a direct reply that we could not leave our house after 5 pm 15 years ago. Now at 8 o'clock, we're sitting in the program. We want the Nitish government.

After travelling the whole Bihar, it seems that even though people are angry with Nitish, the Prime Minister will pull the government of double engine on his own. But the exit poll which came after the last phase on November 7 got me confused. By the way, an old friend of mine and a famous anchor of a news channel asked what is your assessment, Tripathi ji. I wrote that the poor and farmers in Bihar stand firmly with Modi, the young man is with Tejashwi Yadav and Nitish still has a hold among women. I wrote that Tejashwi's party RJD in Bihar will be number 1 with around 80 seats, BJP will be second with 75 seats and JDU will be third with 40 seats. I also wrote that the government in Bihar will build on the performance of JD(U) and Congress, not on the performance of BJP and RJD. Well, I was expecting a hung assembly and I was probably quite right.