Boris Johnson's visit to India - Decoding the agenda

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is visiting India on his two days visit at a time when Russia and Ukraine are fighting a bloody war and entire Europe is on its toes about the future repercussions of the war. 

The timing of this visit indicates that there are larger things in the mind of the British PM and it is essential to understand them. There are aspects of his visit which create curiosity about his agenda. First, instead of landing in the Indian Capital Delhi as per protocol, Boris landed in Gujrat, the home state of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. 

Second, Modi had a history of receiving the heads of state himself but he did not go to Gujarat to receive Johnson this time, and third, the overenthusiasm of Johnson towards India and its culture including his conduct and statements he made were not what we usually expected out of a visiting British Prime Minister. 

The statements of Boris Johnson need to be put under a lens and analysed. Take an example of his statement about the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war. Unlike his previous statements where he termed the Russian President as barbaric and condemned Russia in all possible ways, his tone during the visit to Delhi has mellowed down. He not only respected Indo-Russian statements but also avoided any of the harsh anti-India statements like the ones delivered by Duleep Singh, Deputy NSA of the United States. He has been praising India relentlessly ever since he landed in Gujarat and is showering petals on everyone. Understanding the real motive of Boris Johnson’s visit is of utmost importance for India and let us decode it in a few points now. 

Understand and influence Indian stand on the Russia-Ukraine war 

Everyone knows that India is slowly emerging as one of the biggest powers in South Asia and its prominence in the region cannot be overlooked. In the last decade or so, the country has grown exponentially and established itself successfully as a net security provider in the South Asian region. In the current context of the Russia-Ukraine war, which is going to enter the third month now, it is inevitable for western powers especially NATO to keep India on its right side. During the last few weeks, statements of motormouth leaders of the United States like Duleep Singh have only added negativity to the ongoing Indo-NATO relations and hence NATO wants its second-biggest partner Britain to talk to India. This is also important in the light of Russia being the biggest defence partner with India. 

Bilateral Trade Relations between India and the United Kingdom 

Ever since Brexit, the British economy is contracting rapidly, and to survive, it must find new business avenues, new partners, and new trade zones. It is a unanimous truth that India is going to be the biggest market in the world and everyone across the globe is eyeing this market. Naturally, Britain is no longer an exception too. India recently signed a free trade agreement with Australia which is going to have repercussions for the United Kingdom as the flow of bilateral trade with India may tilt in the favour of Australia and Johnson must balance it out. So, in line with Australia, the British PM is also talking about a free trade agreement and is trying to establish Britain as a key trade partner with India. There are various other announcements like forming joint ventures with various Indian companies, investment in Indian tech unicorns, bilateral business coalitions, etc which are nothing but British initiatives to enhance trade with India.  

Targeting other Markets through India

To sustain its economy in the long run, Britain needs new and emerging markets and Asian-African markets are the future of the global economy. As earlier brought out, India’s geographical location and easy availability of human capital as well as raw materials make it an ideal trade hub to target ASEAN, African, and Asia-Pacific markets. Britain wants Indian help in expanding its footprint in the Indo-Pacific. Since the United States and other countries are already present in India, Britain does not want to be lagging. Moreover, since India is emerging as a strong alternative to China, all eyes are on Delhi and Boris Johnson is no exception.  

Improving his image in Britain

Boris Johnson is facing severe criticism back in his home country where after-party gate, his image is largely spoiled. Since the world economy has started showing signs of improvement after nearly two years of intense COVID pandemic, he got a bright opportunity to show his countrymen that he is concerned about Britain and is making efforts towards its economic development. If Boris Johnson succeeds in negotiating a free trade agreement with India, it will not only give a boost to the struggling British economy but also improve his image in his party as well as the country as well. 

Re-establish UK as a major defence partner with India 

Back in history, we see that the overall share of the United Kingdom in India’s Defence purchase has been declining drastically. In 1950, it was nearly 100% which decreased to about 20% in the early seventies, 14% in eighties, just seven percent in nineties and about 3-4% twenty years back. Currently, it is less than one percent of overall Defence purchases of India. India is emerging as the biggest buyer of defence equipment in the world spend close to 70-80 Billion US Dollars annually.  Although India and the UK signed the Defence Equipment Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) way back in 1997 and the same has been renewed twice, in 2007 and 2019, but achieved limited success only. Except for a few joint-ventures (JVs) like AgustaWestland–Tata Sons’ JV, Mahindra Defence-BAE Systems’ JV and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited-BAE Systems’ for licenced production of Hawk advanced trainer aircraft, very few projects were able to kick off. Recently, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been instrumental in creating two Defence Industrial Corridors in Uttar Pradesh and Tamilnadu respectively, and in light of this, the defence production lobby in the United Kingdom is eyeing India as the biggest opportunity. This can be judged by the fact that UK Arms Company Webley and Scott is already in the process of establishing its plant in Hardoi- Uttar Pradesh while many others are talking to respective state governments of India. 

Apart from the British interests, it is pertinent to notice that there are voices in the United Kingdom who are advocating that Britain should become an independent power in the world and come out of the shadows of NATO and the United States. Nevertheless, somewhere somehow, Britain wants to end the American hegemony and is eyeing the developing markets to have its interests fulfilled. The visit of Boris Johnson to India is just a chapter of this.