DNA ANALYSIS: Bell tolls for Congress in UP as Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav ignore it

While threat of political annihilation may have compelled 'bua-bhatija' (aunt-nephew) duo of BSP president Mayawati and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav to come together to combat the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections, the politically significant move has also virtually sounded an endgame for the Grand Old Congress in Uttar Pradesh as well.

Analysts believe the change in leadership of SP, where brothers Mulayam Singh Yadav and Shivpal Yadav were pushed to margins by new chief Akhilesh and the result of byelections of Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha seats actually led Mayawati to join hands to arrest the march of BJP's juggernaut. "This alliance was founded in my heart when the BJP conspired and defeated BSP candidate Bhim Rao Ambedkar in RS biennial polls. I had said that if I had to take two steps backwards for the alliance, I will do it," said Akhilesh, thanking Mayawati, while announcing the alliance.

Most of the delegates from UP who had come to attend the BJP's National Convention here at the Ramlila Maidan did agree that their job has now become tougher and they need to revisit their drawing board. The BJP had won maximum seats in the state in the 2014 LS polls. It was also evident in PM Modi's speech as well, who targeted the alliance. "We want a strong government... there is a failed experiment taking place... which is known as the grand alliance. They have all come together to make a helpless government," Modi said. In 2014 elections, the BJP under Modi wave swept polls by securing 42.63% vote share. While SP and BSP contested separately, their vote share adds up to 42.12%. To counter this consolidation, BJP sources say, they are now aiming to secure a 50% vote share in 2019. That means to maintain the 2014 vote share that it owed largely to Modi wave and the failure of UPA government on various fronts at the Centre and a large disillusionment towards SP government. And also to add up an extra 7% to 2014 vote share, poses challenges to party's master strategist and president Amit Shah.

The alliance means that core voters of SP's (Yadav, 9%) and BSP's (Jatav and Chamar, 12%) will come together to repeat the 1993 experiment when they stopped the BJP march at the peak of Ayodhya movement. To counter this, insiders in the BJP said, they were now banking on the support from non-Yadav OBCs (around 36%) and non-Jatav scheduled castes (around 9%) and upper castes (around 20%). They are also banking on the premise that Yadavs and Jatavs on the ground don't see eye to eye. Over past 24 years, since the SP and the BSP parted ways, they have been fierce opponents. But the alliance could clear the dilemma of Muslim voters, which form 19.3% of the electorate and used to get divided between secular parties.

The SP leaders, who played role in stitching alliance, told DNA that Congress has been kept out deliberately as part of strategy. They believe while the alliance will consolidate the Dalit-backward caste-Muslim votes, the Congress by contesting on its own on all seats will eat into the BJP's upper case votes and Brahmin votes. Historically, upper castes and Banias have supported the BJP. But with a host of factors leading to their disillusionment, they are supposed to favour the Congress rather the SP-BSP combine. Whether it is true that two UP parties have come together out of political compulsion, it once again proves that there are no permanent friends or foes in politics.

Uttar Pradesh Caste Equations 

The SP-BSP alliance means core voters of SP’s (Yadav, 9%) and BSP’s (Jatav and Chamar, 12%) will come together to repeat the 1993 experiment when they stopped the BJP march at the peak of Ayodhya movement. To counter this, the BJP is now banking on the support from non-Yadav OBCs (36%) and non-Jatav SCs (9%) and upper castes (20%)