In Rajasthan, parties finally get serious about elections

A few days back Rajasthan’s election campaign saw the much-awaited turnaround. From the ego contest it had begun to resemble between chief minister Ashok Gehlot and his predecessor Vasundhara Raje, it finally turned into what it should have always been—the fight for 7, Race Course Road.

The initial phase of the campaign had threatened to become an encore of the Assembly polls held in December 2008, with Raje and Gehlot sparring with each other, sometimes even hitting, as the Congress complains, below the intellect. But in the last week of April, everything changed. Suddenly the Congress and the BJP unleashed their entire star-power on the state and began talking about the real issues, pushing the petty Gehlot vs Raje feud into the background.

So what led to this sudden interest in Rajasthan?

Rajasthan has 25 Lok Sabha seats, a size that is big enough to tilt the balance in the fight for New Delhi. Over the past few decades, starting in 1984 when the Congress won all the seats, the state’s voters have had the habit of supporting one party en masse. In 2004, the BJP, with 21 seats, benefitted from the trend.

This year, as the race between the BJP and the Congress becomes too close to call, Rajasthan’s 25 seats could be the decisive factor.

The Congress thinks it is going to win “15-plus” seats this time. “The number could go up to 19,” says state Congress chief CP Joshi.

The BJP, however, thinks it has the edge over its rival. Surveys conduced by the party indicate that its tally could touch 12. Raje says her party will bag 15 seats at least as the people regret voting her out of power.

In the recent assembly polls, the difference between the votes polled by the two parties was less than 2 per cent. Even a marginal shift in balance could surprise both the parties.
While independent candidates are in the fray in at least six constituencies, only two of them look like possible winners—former home minister Buta Singh from Jalore-Sirohi and Kirori Lal Meena, a tribal leader who fell out with Gehlot on election eve.

But the Congress’ biggest dread is that of the rising mercury. Its leaders fear that if the polling percentage stays below 45, it could lose badly in the elections. Anything above 55% will keep it in the safe zone. The reason is simple: the BJP has more committed voters in urban areas. “They will come out and vote, while the Congress voter may prefer to stay home,” says a Congress leader.

While having an impact on the chances of the BJP and the Congress at the Centre, this election has become important for several other factors. In case the Congress wins, it would permanently erase the impression that Gehlot is not popular among the powerful Jat voters, who control the outcome in at least 11 seats of western Rajasthan.

The other important thing this election would decide is the future of the Meena tribe in the state’s politics. For years they have remained a strong political force in eastern Rajasthan. But this year there is a strong undercurrent of resentment against them.

The litmus test of this anti-Meena trend would be in Sawai Madhopur, where Gurjar leader Col (retd) Kirori Singh Bhainsla (BJP) is taking on Union minister Namonarayan Meena. The Gurjars, led by Bhainsla, had carried out two massive stirs in 2007 and 2008 for inclusion among scheduled tribes. The Meenas were opposed to the demand because of their current monopoly over the ST quota. If Bhainsla wins Sawai Madhopur, it would signal the end of Meena power in the region.