Naveen's Orissa Gamble

Mix honest image, fierce criticism of New Delhi's neglect, and local identity, then wrap them all in an aggressive development agenda. Ignore the communal cauldrons of your home state, or project a Kalinga movement like Emperor Ashoka and try making up for the past mistakes.

Be it Narendra Modi in Gujarat, Nitish Kumar in Bihar or Naveen Patnaik in Orissa that in short is the formula of the new regional political satraps across India. For Naveen Patnaik, the suave socialite whose life in global metros has given way to chief ministership of one of the most backward and communally polarised states of India, this election is the most crucial. Biju Patnaik's bachelor son cannot visualise life as an opposition leader, retaining the chief minister's chair is a must.

From a burdensome ally, the BJP has turned into a formidable foe. Crying betrayal, stirring communal tensions in tribal belts and garnering most of his dissidents, BJP is gaining sympathy among significant sections. "They will have to pay a heavy price for betraying the people of Orissa by unilaterally breaking the alliance," says BJP state unit president Suresh Pujari, about Patnaik's decision to call off the BJD-BJP alliance on the eve of elections.

And the Congress is hoping to reap a rich harvest now that the elections are three-cornered, and JB Patnaik and his wife, along with their corruption taints, are kept out of electoral fray. 

But for both BJP and Congress the task isn't so easy, as Patnaik rides a huge wave of popularity, carefully cultivated through his two terms as CM. If he were to win the Orissa elections, it would also show up that India indeed is ready for a new kind of clean and efficient politics. What sticks out like sore thumb is Patnaik's demand for fierce loyalty bordering on megalomania.

Patnaik has sacked over a dozen ministers from his cabinets in the past two terms, mostly for corruption charges. He has also come down heavily on several IAS and IPS officers for malpractices. All that, and his own clean image, has given Patnaik a clear edge over his rivals in the state, the way Modi in Gujarat or Nitish Kumar in Bihar has managed.

Says his trusted strategist and senior BJD leader Pyarimohan Mohapatra, "We have been able to build up a transparent administration, and the actions against so many ministers and bureaucrats for corruption has convinced the people of Orisssa that Naveen Patnaik is an honest politician." Besides, the several development work undertaken across the state and social welfare programmes would also bring them votes, hopes BJD leaders. So the party's election plank is "peace and progress".

While admitting that Patnaik has a clean image, Orissa Congress president KP Singh Deo doesn't buy that argument. "The very fact that he had to sack 11 ministers and speaker shows it is a corrupt government. All around him it is corruption," Deo told DNA.

Patnaik himself is clear: His campaign is focussed on development and projecting the clean image, while lashing out at New Delhi's neglect of Orissa. In his anglicised Oriya, Patnaik blames the BJP for the communal riots, but want the crowds to go back home with his promise of development. That he hopes would ride him back to power. Unlike Modi, the suave secular Patnaik cannot hope to reap the harvest of hatred. Even if he wouldn't mind the electoral by-product of the bloodbath, this time Patnaik is on the wrong side of the divide for the first time.