Is it the beginning of the end of Musharraf, ask Indian experts

NEW DELHI: India may wish for a 'stable and peaceful neighbour', but former Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif's deportation to Saudi Arabia within hours of arriving home from exile is set to plunge Pakistan into a constitutional crisis and signals the beginning of the end of President Pervez Musharraf's military rule, say analysts and experts here.

"What it shows is that the general is very nervous. He is irreparably damaged," G. Parthasarathy, a former Indian ambassador to Pakistan, told on Monday when asked about the repercussions of Sharif's deportation on domestic politics in Pakistan.   

"It's going to spark a constitutional crisis. No constitution of any country gives the government the right to deport its own national without due process of law," the former envoy added.

"It will also inevitably lead to a confrontation with the Supreme Court which had allowed Sharif to return to Pakistan despite the Musharraf regime's attempt to block it," he said.

Sharif, who twice became prime minister of Pakistan in the nineties, was arrested and deported to the Saudi capital Riyadh on Monday within hours of his arriving home from London after seven years in exile. 

A year after he came to power in 1999, Musharraf cast Sharif into exile in Saudi Arabia under a deal, as claimed by the government, that he stay in Saudi Arabia for 10 years to avoid a life sentence on hijacking and corruption charges. Sharif has claimed the deal was only for five years.

India is closely watching developments in Pakistan, but has chosen to remain discreet.

"It is an internal problem (of Pakistan), but I would like to have a stable neighbour," External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee told. 

The deportation of Sharif, in a brazen violation of the Supreme Court's injunction last month allowing him and his brother Shabaaz to return to Pakistan, is likely to impact adversely the plummeting popularity of Musharraf as he seeks another term in a presidential election in the national and provincial assemblies some time between Sep 15 and Oct 15, many here think.

"It (his return and subsequent deportation) is certainly going to make Sharif more popular in Punjab. If elections were held now, he will sweep the elections. That's what makes Musharraf so nervous," Parthasarathy underlined.
 
"President Musharraf's regime is on its last legs. It is a contempt of the court and will be seen as a violation of the Supreme Court's injunction," Bharat Karnad, a strategic expert, told.

"Sharif's return to Pakistan has sent a clear message that he is courageous enough to come back to his country despite dire threats. It also shows Musharraf is not in a position to face Sharif politically," said Prof. S.D. Muni, an expert on South Asia at Jawaharlal Nehru University.

K. Subrahmanyam, an expert who heads the government task force on global strategic developments, sees Musharraf's move as part of a larger gameplan to stay in power that will help him to strike a deal with former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.

"By acting tough against Sharif, Musharraf is sending the signal to Bhutto to come to some sort of compromise deal with him on his own terms," he opined, alluding to speculations about a power-sharing deal between Musharraf and Bhutto in return for dropping of corruption cases against the latter.

The contours of the deal are not clear, but media reports say that Bhutto is ready to become a democratically elected prime minister with Musharraf as president after he gives up his army uniform. But the talks have not made much headway.

For all dire predictions about Musharraf's future, Subrahmanyam, for one, doesn't think the Pakistani president is headed for the wilderness as long as the army continues to back him. "This can be the end of Musharraf. But as long as the army is behind him, he stays very much in power," he added.