The wait for southwest monsoon has just got longer, thanks to Cyclone Vayu and prevailing weather conditions. Though Mumbai and parts of Konkan and Gujarat received some pre-monsoon showers, many states are reeling under bad to severe drought-like conditions. As per Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the country has recorded 41% deficiency in monsoon till June 14.
IMD officials told DNA that things will get better after June 18 when low depression develops in Bay of Bengal, resulting in monsoon-revival conditions in southern and western India.
"Cyclone Vayu may recurve on June 16 and hit Kutch on June 17 and 18. It was supposed to hit land between Porbander and Veraval on Thursday. However, it recurved and is now headed towards Saurashtra and will die in Rajasthan," said AK Srivastava, Scientist and Head, Climate research division, IMD, Pune.
All these factors have resulted into a domino effect and delayed sowing season, impacting the Indian agro-economy. IMD has given an advisory to Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu to delay kharif sowing.
Agriculture economists caution that if the monsoon shows similar patterns then this can impact yield and give rise to inflation.
"The late onset and spread of monsoon have impacted the plantation schedule. If the spread is further impacted then it will have adverse impact on yield. If the distribution of the rainfall is uneven, then it will impact yield, income and prices," said Pradeep Apte, Senior Economist, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, Pune.
Mumbai has been witnessing pre-monsoon showers for the past few days. Till Saturday, the Santacruz observatory recorded 45 mm of rainfall, and Colaba observatory 44 mm. However, the city will get its regular monsoon only after June 18.
The sea condition is very likely to be rough to very rough along & off Gujarat coast and rest of east central Arabian Sea up to Monday. IMD has issued a warning to fishermen to not venture into north Arabian Sea, northern parts of central Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat coast till Monday. Currently there is a total suspension of fishing operations as per IMD instructions.
The only silver lining in the series of monsoon-related woes is the Bay of Bengal depression which is expected to normalise monsoon activity.
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