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Weekly outlook: Sensex nosedives to 14-month-low, Nifty below crucial 7,700-mark

Sentiment was hit as the week only witnessed a single bargain hunting gains mirroring a recovery in global stocks. Already bogged down by the global uncertainty over China slow down, the market expected a balm in the absence bad news from China from its declaration of two-day holiday to commemorate the end of World War II.

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    Indian equities lost further ground for fourth week in a row, as both the BSE benchmark Sensex dipped to 14-month-low and the broader Nifty fell below the key 7,700-mark, with key indices witnessing massive weekly loss not seen more than five years.

    Sentiment was hit as the week only witnessed a single bargain hunting gains mirroring a recovery in global stocks.

    Already bogged down by the global uncertainty over China slow down, the market expected a balm in the absence bad news from China from its declaration of two-day holiday to commemorate the end of World War II.

    The government ruling to propel the investors sentiment by not levying Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) on gains made by FPIs, and also RBI would consider domestic and global deflation trend on dictating its policy rates did not helped at the ground level to pick-up the stock momentum.

    The free fall was witnessed as investors sentiment tangled in web of insecurities driven by concerns over future economic conditions amid data of deficit monsoon with country receiving 12% less rainfall this year would provoke poor agriculture output.

    The bearishness also attributed to the continued FII sell-off amid key macro datas of slow-down in GDP growth by 7% this quarter from previous 7.5% and manufacturing PMI to 52.3% from 52.7%.

    The uncertainty over key US Federal Reserve rate hike in September on the back of its strong economic data also loomed the trading sentiment.

    The Sensex resumed higher at 26,469.42 and traded to high of 26,504.73 and crashed to low of 25,119.06 before ending the week at 25,201.90, showing a massive loss of 1,190.48 points, or 4.51%.

    Similarly, the broader CNX 50-share Nifty index also tanked by a huge 346.90 points, or 4.34% to end at 7,655.05 after hitting a low of 7,626.85 during the week trade. 

    The Sensex has tumbled by 3,034.49 points or 10.75% in four weeks and the CNX 50-share Nifty also dropped by 909.55 points or 10.62% in four weeks.

    Rate sensitive stocks led the pack on heavy selling followed by Capital Goods and PSUs.

    Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued their selling pressure as they sold shares net Rs 4,385.31 crore during the week as per the SEBI's record including the provisional figure of September 4.

    Among the S&P BSE sectoral indices, Power dropped by 7.15 points, followed by Bankex 6.42 points, Auto 5.67 points, Capital Goods 5.47 points, Consumer Durables 4.17 points, Metal 3.85 points, Oil & Gas 3.55 points, Healthcare 2.89 points, Realty 2.77 points, FMCG 2.67 points, Teck 1.98 and Information Technology 1.95 points.

    The BSE Mid-Cap Index dropped by 399.51 points or 3.71 points to settle at 10,359.90. The BSE Small-Cap index tumbled by 387.58 points or 3.53% to settle at 10,605.24.

    Among the 30-share Sensex pack, all the 30 shares in the Sensex pack declined in the week end.

    Major losers were Bhel (11.91 points), M&M (9.78 points), Hindalco (9.66 points), SBIN (9.71 points), ICICI Bank (9.06 points), Axis Bank (7.72 points), ONGC (7.37 points), NTPC (5.88 points), Tata Motors (5.16 points), Larsen (5.14 points) HDFC (4.72 points), Hero Motoco (4.51 points) Tata Steel (4.18 points), Reliance Ind (4.09 points), Bharari Airtel (3.42 points) and ITC (3.42 points).

    Total turnover at BSE and NSE declined to Rs 12,374.23 crore, and 89,759.01 crore from the last weekend's level of Rs 18,931.54 crore and Rs 1,20,565.45 crore, respectively.

    In line with equity market, the rupee continued to fall against the American currency for the 4th consecutive week, slipping by another 32 paise to settle at 66.46 on persistent demand for the green currency from banks and importers coupled with sustained foreign capital outflows.

    Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued their selling pressure as they sold shares net USD 467.88 million during the first four days of the week as per the SEBI's record.

    The rupee opened lower at 66.25 per dollar as against the last weekend's level of 66.14 per dollar at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) market and dropped further to 66.52 per dollar before ending the week at 66.46 per dollar, showing a loss of 32 paise or 0.48%.

    The rupee has tumbled by 265 paise or 4.15% in the four weeks. The domestic currrency hovered in a range of 66.10 per dollar and 66.52 per dollar during the week.

    The Indian benchmark Sensex tumbled sharply by 1,190.48 points or 4.51%,.

    "Investors are still keeping their eyes on the stock market," a forex dealer said.

    In the global market, the dollar finished the week on uneven footing, posting its second straight weekly gain against the euro, while weakening against the yen after Friday's closely watched jobs report delivered a hazy picture of the US labour market.

    In the forward market, the premium for dollar fell sharply on receivings from the exporters.

    Forward dollar premium payable in February dropped to 207-209 paise from the last weekend's level of 217-219 paise and far-forward contract maturing in August 2016 also finished lower at 422-424 paise from 437.5-439.5 paise.

    RBI fixed the reference rate for the dollar at 66.4003 and the Euro at 73.8903 respectively from the last weekend's level of 66.0808 and 74.3673.

    The rupee firmed up against the pound to close the week at 101.17 from 101.74 last weekend and also moved up against the euro to 74.03 from 74.49.

    However, the domestic currency fell against the Japanese currency to finish at 55.77 per 100 yen from the last weekend's level of 54.70. 

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