UP Elections 2017: 7 factors could help BJP win

In less than 24 hours, we will know the results of the mother of all elections, which is likely to have deep ramifications in the Indian political scene one way or other. Can Akhilesh combat anti-incumbency? Will the Modi mania be good enough for BJP? Does Mayawati still have the firepower to make a magical comeback? The answers to all these related questions will be answered soon. The exit polls predict BJP emerging as the single largest party and in pole position to form the next government. While we have to wait for the actual results, let us evaluate the  X-factors which will determine which party has the last laugh after this gruelling election schedule.

Let’s look at those key factors one at a time.

Pro or anti-incumbency for Akhilesh

The UP CM has been consistently claiming that he is seeking votes based on work done. Undeniably, Akhilesh has done some solid work but many experts believe it has been uneven in nature, with western and central UP making the most of the grants, and eastern UP being largely neglected. SP has changed a large number of sitting MLAs to counter local level anti-incumbency, but whether the people of UP want to give Akhilesh another chance may finally decide the fate of his alliance. If his personal goodwill manages to counter the general urge for a change, the SP-Congress combine may cross the majority mark.

PM Modi’s persuasive campaigning

Winning UP will ensure that BJP gets an upper hand in Rajya Sabha. Fully aware of this arithmetic, PM Modi gave his heart and soul to the UP campaign. Modi started his pitch with an appeal for development but tempered it to add borderline communal rhetoric from the third phase. Sensing the uneven development of UP under Akhilesh, Modi in a masterstroke tried to wedge divide among voters, claiming funds have been distributed in a partisan manner. In a post-truth world, the claim stuck as Akhilesh giving grants selectively, based on religious affiliation. Will it be enough to sway the voters?

Mayawati’s low key but sustained canvassing

This is the make or break election for the BSP matriarch. India’s tallest Dalit leader has faced some tough electoral reverses, with many of her core voters deserting the ship. Even top leaders have left BSP, but Mayawati has shown great gumption for fighting back. Like BJP, BSP is in contention in all the seats in UP. Mayawati started early and energised the grassroots, mainly focusing on how law and order was far better under her government. She has also vowed to not repeat her past mistakes. Mayawati’s victory will probably be one of the greatest comebacks in Indian politics after getting 0 out of 78 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Will Congress prop up or weigh down Akhilesh?

Akhilesh Yadav made an alliance much against the wishes of his father Mulayam Singh Yadav. Congress, after dominating UP politics in the first few decades post- Independence, has sadly become a spent force. Its vote bank has been poached by other parties. Yet Congress still enjoys the support of a section of Muslims and upper castes. In Bihar, Congress added value to the Mahagatbandhan, whereas in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, it had a negative effect on the alliance. Rahul Gandhi will sincerely hope that all his efforts for the last six months bear some fruit. Otherwise, the party is destined for a long exile from Lucknow’s hot-seat.

Will Pari-war cost Akhilesh dearly?

The bitter battle for supremacy in the Samajwadi party threatened to split the party. In the end, Akhilesh won the succession battle, outwitting his father and also managing to retain the election symbol ‘cycle’. But the Pari-war scarred the party and left the cadres divided. A crestfallen Mulayam finally ‘blessed’ Akhilesh but decided to stay largely out of the campaigning, making appearances at only a handful of pitstops. The bitter intra-party fight is likely to cost SP dearly in family pocket boroughs of Mainpuri and Etawah. Mulayam also did not bother to campaign in his own Lok Sabha seat of Azamgarh. In a tight battle, with BJP close on heels, divided loyalty from core SP voters can cost Akhilesh his seat of CM.

Will Hindus again collectively vote for BJP?

The short answer to this is— no. It's 2017, not 2014. There is no Modi wave or the burning desire to uproot the corrupt UPA 2 government. Hence, it is unlikely that Hindus will vote en masse for BJP, ignoring caste, class and other compulsions. The Jats in Western UP have largely voted for RLD, as per reports. Post Muzaffarnagar riots, the Jats coalesced around BJP, but have resumed normal voting pattern this time around. The saffron party though has tried to aggressively to unite the Hindu votes, using a multi-pronged approach. From not declaring a CM face, so that no particular section turns away, to shamelessly pursuing thinly veiled communal agenda in eastern UP, the party has really gone the distance.

BJP is assured of getting a chunk of the upper caste votes, and is looking to garner the majority of non-Yadav OBC and non-Yadav Dalit votes. There are talks of backlash from voters against the state government for designing pro-Yadav and pro-minority schemes. By forging local alliances in central and Eastern UP, giving due roles to leaders from crucial castes, Amit Shah has aptly done the micro-management needed to win such complex election. Whether voters are swayed by it or now, we will know tomorrow.

Who gets the Muslim votes?

In most constituencies, there is classic triangular contest. Hence, there is a popular theory that Muslim votes (which are generally anti-BJP) will be divided between SP-Congress and BSP. Some experts believe that the division of minority votes will help BJP pick up many seats. However, there is another school of thought which believes that Muslims will be backing candidates, not a party per se and in each seat they will pick the person who is most likely to defeat BJP.

The difference between a hung assembly and a resounding mandate may well be determined by how these key dynamics play out. During their campaign, SP-Congress repeatedly warned voters not to vote for Mayawati, claiming she may join hands with BJP. Despite that, Mayawati seems to be picking up a decent amount of traction from Muslims, particularly in eastern UP and Rohilakhand. For too long, Muslims have been merely seen from the prism of a voting block and sadly this election has not been any different. 

All these 7 factors, in different measures, will decide which party becomes the first among equals. It has truly been a fight to the finish and only the deserving will be the last man standing.