Retail inflation rises to 15-month high of 4.62%, breaches RBI target of 4%

Retail inflation in India rose to a 15-month high in October to 4.62%, up from last month's figure of 3.99%, the government data showed on Wednesday.

It was 3.38% in October last year. 

This is the first time that retail inflation has breached the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term target of 4% since July 2018.

Retail inflation, measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 4.29% for rural areas, and 5.11% in urban areas in October, up from 3.24% and 4.78%, respectively, in September.

Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI), a gauge to measure changes in food prices, grew 7.89% in October as against 5.11% in the preceding month, data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) showed. The food prices in October last year rose by -0.86%.

The sharp rise is seen due to rising vegetable price because of erratic monsoon this season. This is also much hire than what the experts were hoping. 

”For the first time in 15-months, inflation print has exceeded RBI’s medium term target of 4%. Oct CPI has increased to 4.62% from 3.99% in Sep and has surprising came in more than with what market was expecting. This sharp rise was especially due to uptick in food prices amid erratic monsoon. Despite rising inflation, we expect RBI to continue its easing cycle on the back of sluggish growth and weak core inflation and cut repo rate at December meeting," Rahul Gupta, Head of Currency, Emkay Global Financial Services, said.