Gujarat elections 2017: BJP retains its iron grip over Ahmedabad

Ahmedabad continues its romance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), backing it once again in the 2017 assembly elections.

Although the party did well in the district and the city, the number of seats it won in the city dipped.

It should be noted that the Ahmedabad district has 21 seats, of which five are rural and rest 16 are in Ahmedabad city. BJP won 15 of the 21 seats in the district. In the city, the party won 12 of the 16 seats (in 2012 BJP had won 14 seats), conceding an additional two seats than in 2012.

In rural areas of districts, the party won three seats conceding two to Congress. Though the party continued to maintain the number of seats in rural Ahmedabad, it lost Viramgam and Dhandhuka to Congress and gained Daskroi, Dholka and Sanand in return. Sanand was won by the Congress in 2012.

Viramgam is the hometown of Paatidar Anamat Aandolan Samiti (PAAS) and Tejashree Patel. She lost to Congress’s Lakhabhai Bharwad by 6,548 votes.

In Dhandhuka, BJP’s Kalubhai Dabhi lost to the Congress’ Rajesh Gohil by 5,920 votes. Interestingly, Dhandhuka was a seat which the BJP’s Lalji Kolipatel had won in 2012 by 28,277 votes.

It is obvious from the present victory margin that the 2017 elections was a closely contested elections for the BJP in Dhandhuka.

BJP concedes two more seats in Ahd city

The BJP that has an extremely good organisational structure at the city level, found itself losing two more seats to the Congress in Ahmedabad city. The party lost Jamalpur and Bapunagar, in addition to Dariyapur and Danilimda. While the party had lost Dariapur and Danilimda even in 2012 (both are Muslim-dominated seats), the loss in Jamalpur-Khadia and Bapunagar is something that the party is likely to take serious note of. In Jamalpur-Khadia, Congress’ Imran Khedawala won with a margin of 29,339 seats.

The seat is made up of the former Khadia seat (a BJP bastion) and Jamalpur (a Congress bastion). In 2012 too the BJP was expected to lose the seat but a split of the Muslim Chippa vote between the Congress candidate (a Muslim) and an independent (another Muslim) had helped the BJP sail through. It had won with a slim margin of just 6,331 votes. This time, however, the Congress put up a Chippa Muslim as its candidate. An independent, Sabir Kabliwala, who had filed his nominations as an independent withdrew his candidature at the last moment avoiding a split of the Muslim vote. This helped the Congress win the seat with a margin of over 29,000 votes.

The other seat that the BJP lost is Bapunagar, a seat newly formed in 2012. The BJP’s sitting MLA Jagrupsinh Rajput lost the seat to Congress’ Himmatsinh Patel by a margin of 3067 seats. Bapunagar is made up of areas from the erstwhile Rakhial, a BJP bastion.

In 2012, when BJP won the seat, it too had won with a slim margin of 2,603 votes. The  Congress victory can also be attributed to the fact that the seat has a substantial majority of Patels and the area saw violence during the PAAS agitation for reservation. This too may have worked against the BJP in the seat.

Close Contest

Of the 21 seats that went to polls in Ahmedabad district, six seats saw a victory margin of less than 8,000 votes. These seats included Viramgam, Sanand, Bapunagar, Dariapur, Dholka and Dhandhuka. Of this, the lowest victory margin was in Dholka were sitting MLA and former education minister Bhupendrasinh Chudasama barely made it with 327 votes. He had won the seat in 2012 with a victory margin of over 18,000 votes. The Congress it seems had all the luck as far as close calls were concerned. Of the six seats that had a victory margin of less than 8,000 votes , the Congress turned lucky in 4.  These six seats were distributed equally between the two parties in 2012.

BJP’s margin up in city

The BJP finding favour with the urban voter could be known from the fact that of the 12 urban seats that the party won in Ahmedabad city, the party improved its margin of victory margin in more than seven seats in respect to 2012. The victory margin shot up in Ghatlodia, Vatva, Ellisbridge, Naranpura, Naroda, Sabarmati and Asarva.

The highest victory margin was in Ghatlodia, where Bhupendra Patel of BJP won by a margin of 1,17,750 votes, improving on Anandiben’s performance in 2012. She won with a margin of 1,10,395 votes in 2012, the highest victory margin for that election. Bhupendra Patel continued that trend too. His victory margin is the highest in the 2017 elections.

But sees margins dip in Patel bastions

Though the BJP continued to win in Patel-dominated seats, it saw its victory margins fall considerably, often more than 10,000 votes. The seats that saw a lower victory margin for the BJP than in 2012 were Vejalpur, Nikol, Thakkarbappanagar, Amraiwadi and Maninagar. Of this, Nikol and Thakkarbappanagar saw its victory margin fall by 23,000 in the former and over 15,000 votes in the later.