State elections make way for close contest in 2019 Lok Sabha polls

With just four months left ahead of the 2019 general elections, the results of Assembly polls in five states have opened up the contest wide. While the poll verdict is not believed to be a judgement on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity, it has certainly put a question mark on the ruling party's election machinery, hence clearly serves as lessons for its leaders ahead of the big battle.

Of these five states, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh had played a key role in 2014 Lok Sabha. These 3 states together have 65 Lok Sabha MPs, of which 62 were from the BJP in 2014. They accounted for more than one-fifth of BJP's total votes in the 2004, 2009 and 2014 general elections. Therefore, the battle for 2019 has now become interesting with higher stakes.

Significantly, since these three states also sent 34 MPs to Rajya Sabha, the House will continue to be a pain in the neck for the ruling party, even if the BJP returns to power in 2019. Most of the MP representing these states are retiring in 2020.

In coming days, while the two major players — the BJP and Congress — will sit down to introspect and augment their strategies, it is becoming quite clear that forging alliances, luring regional partners to form winning combinations without compromising their own strengths would test their nerves and art of politicking.

A decade ago, the BJP was seen as an ideal choice for regional players as they were pitted against the Congress in their respective states. But since then politics has turned topsy-turvy. Both the parties will still have to use all their charm and tact — and perhaps money and muscle too — to woo allies.

For the Congress, if the results were to indicate anything, the actual challenge has just begun. Does it need regional players to help its chances across the hinterland, or is it strong enough alone? The poll outcome in Telangana have shown that the Mahakutami with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and other parties has in fact cost the Congress dearly. In the run up to 2019, the Congress will need to tiptoe on eggshells as far as alliances are concerned.

While farm distress coupled with Congress president Rahul Gandhi's promises of remunerative prices to farm produce did swing Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, effects of demonetization coupled with anger against Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje helped the Congress make inroads in Rajasthan. So the first lesson for 2019 is loud and clear — not to ignore farmers. Raje had alienated several sections of the electorate, and the voters have taught her a lesson. Chhattisgarh has 70 per cent marginalised farmers. The Congress started its election campaign in the Naxal-infested state with the slogan 'Narva, garwa, ghurwa, baari, Chhattisgarh ki chaar chinhari' — water sources like rivers, canals; the daily waste that comes out of a home; cattle and fields, are the symbols of the state.

Over past few months, the Union Cabinet has announced several sops. The BJP needs to introspect why they failed to make any real difference.

Insiders in the Congress said while they had put their stakes on Rajasthan, they were sceptical about Madhya Pradesh and were still disbelieving their smooth victory in Chhattisgarh. "We have taken note of these results; especially in the case of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where the party lacks any machinery at ground level. In the next few days, we will be making swift calculations about positioning and tactics for the 2019 elections," said a senior Congress leader.

Even as Congress president Rahul Gandhi and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister and TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu had displayed show of unity by bringing all opposition leaders (barring Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati) together, leaders believe that the idea to forge an alliance at national level may not work. "Instead, it is more prudent to work for state-specific alliances for 2019 polls," they maintained.

The results have also given a much needed morale boost to the Congress, which was decimated in the 2014 elections. The successive defeats in states after that had also shrunk political presence in states. It lost seats in 15 out of 21 Assembly elections after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Political analysts now believe that the party now heads confidently into elections with the sense that the worst is behind it and the BJP is no more invincible. Rahul Gandhi still may not be a match for Narendra Modi's popularity, but he will be seen a credible alternative and no longer caricatured as an ineffectual leader.

Changing trends, changing tactics

• The outcome of the five state polls, considered the semi final ahead of general election, has changed the way forward for both the BJP and challengers Congress and other opposition parties.  
• With changing trends, focus is likely to go back to regional alliances instead of a national one, as it did decades ago where BJP was the ideal ally for regional parties to oust Congress.