Maya’s next tension: byelection

After a poor show in the Lok Sabha election, the BSP now faces its next big challenge - the by-election to 10 seats of the Vidhan Sabha (legislative assembly). These seats have fallen vacant as the 10 MLAs contested the Lok Sabha election; only six of them won.
In UP’s Vidhan Sabha, which has 403 seats, a by-election to 10 seats might look insignificant.

But in the light of the Lok Sabha election results, this by-poll has become a matter of survival for the BSP. In fact, this could well prove to be the proverbial weather cock which would indicate if recent political trends in UP would indeed bring about a wave to wash away the BSP and usher in a Congress era again in the next assembly election due in 2012.

Of these 10 seats, the Samajwadi Party (SP) had won four in the 2007 assembly election. Two each were with the Congress and the BJP while the BSP and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) had one each. On the face of it, the BSP doesn’t have much to defend or lose. But the stakes are high now and if the BSP wins less than five of these 10 seats, it would signal a beginning in the decline of Mayawati’s fortunes.
A close analysis of the recent Lok Sabha election results shows that it is indeed going to be a tough battle for the BSP. UP has 80 Lok Sabha and 403 Vidhan Sabha constituencies, which means five Assembly segments in one parliament seat.

The BSP won 19 seats in 2004 and has increased its tally by one this time. But the number of Assembly segments where its candidate was on top remains the same as 2004 - 100. Contrast this with 206, the number of seats the BSP actually won in the 2007 Assembly election, and the picture becomes clear.

On the other hand, the Congress which won only 22 assembly seats in 2007 has zoomed to number one position in as many as 95 assembly segments. Its vote share has gone up by a hefty 10% since then. Even the BJP which has slipped to the fourth position in UP this time, has topped in 62 assembly segments, though it won only 51 Assembly seats in 2007.

The SP which won 97 seats in 2007, has emerged on top in the largest number of Assembly segments - 118. Its tally of 23 Lok Sabha seats is also the highest in UP.
While other parties are in the throes of review meetings, the Congress camp is predictably upbeat.

“The BSP will be routed in the by-elections,” says UP Congress media unit chairman Vivek Singh. “We should win at least half of these 10 seats,” he adds.

Some Congress leaders are now quoting this assembly segment-wise analysis to point out that if the SP and the Congress join hands, the alliance could get as many as 213 seats (118 SP and 95 Congress) and comfortably form the government in 2012. But for now, it seems highly unlikely that the suggestion would find favour with the Congress high command.