Exit polls conducted by several television channels and media houses predict a close race at the Centre, with the Congress marginally ahead of the BJP.
Exit polls conducted by several television channels and media houses predict a close race at the Centre, with the Congress marginally ahead of the BJP.
If the exit poll results released on Wednesday are anything to go by, forming the next government will be a nightmarish proposition for both the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Congress and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP. Neither grouping appears to be in pole position to reach the magic figure of 272 in the House of 543, which is required to form the government.
Contrary to popular perception, there appears to have been a marginal swing towards the national parties, but the regional parties are still expected to play a critical role in the formation of the next government.
Both formations may be in with a chance, but their task has not been made any easier with some of the large and critical states like Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal likely to come up with split verdicts. This is also expected to make the task of roping in new allies extremely difficult.
The BJP appears to have a slight edge over the Congress as far as winning new friends is concerned. This is because while existing Congress allies like the DMK, RJD, and LJP have not done as well as they had in 2004, they have not been wiped out either.
The Congress cannot seek new allies without running the risk of losing the existing ones. Taking a mean of the various polls, the Congress appears set to buck the anti-incumbency trend by improving upon its tally of 145 seats in 2004 by seven seats in 2009. The BJP is expected to win 143, also improving marginally upon its tally of 138 in 2004.
Despite the improved showing by the Congress, however, the overall tally of the UPA is expected to be around 196, with the NDA close behind at 186. Neither of the two formations will be able to cross the 200-figure mark. In 2004, the UPA had crossed 200.
The third front, an amorphous grouping of regional parties piloted by the Left Front, appears likely to bely the hype around it and end up with an average tally of only 115 seats.
According to the exit polls, the Left Front itself is likely to win just a little more than half the number of seats it held in the fourteenth Lok Sabha in 2004.
Similarly, the fourth front comprising the Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav, Rashtriya Janata Dal of Lalu Prasad, and Lok Janshakti Party of Ram Vilas Paswan too is likely to take a hit, with the three Hindi heartland biggies together managing only about 30 seats. In 2004, the Samajwadi Party alone had won 39 seats and the RJD 24.
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