Fiji's military coup may have been bloodless and effective, but it is already hitting trouble as resistance to the regime mounts and the effects of the coup bite hard into the fragile economy.
SYDNEY: Fiji's military coup may have been bloodless and effective, but it is already hitting trouble as resistance to the regime mounts and the effects of the coup bite hard into the fragile economy.
Coup leader Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama, who became a national hero by crushing a putsch in 2000, faces a potentially ignominious and violent end to what he terms his "clean-up" of government, experts in Fijian and Pacific affairs warn.
"This coup has run into immediate difficulties and will face even more as the economic impact of what has happened becomes keenly felt in Fiji," said Sinclair Dinnen of the Australian National University.
"It would appear the commodore has miscalculated the extent of support he would get from the people and key constituencies in Fiji to make the coup a success," he said of Tuesday's overthrow of prime minister Laisenia Qarase.
The first cracks began showing hours after the coup when several top police officers and civil servants branded it unconstitutional and refused to support the new regime.
The tough-talking Bainimarama immediately cracked down, briefly rounding up some dissenters and then sacking them from key public posts.
Among those dismissed for non-cooperation were the commissioners of police and prisons, the public service commission chief, the chief executive of the prime minister's office, the solicitor general and then the vice president.
Troops are hunting the finance ministry's chief executive who imposed strict spending limits on the government before fleeing, leaving the military struggling to obtain funds for its clean-up of alleged corruption.
Fiji's all important Methodist Church opposed the nation's fourth coup in 19 years while the highly-influential Great Council of Chiefs rounded on Bainimarama for sacking the vice president.
It refused to meet to reappoint the president whose powers the commander temporarily assumed Tuesday, delaying the formation of an interim government.
One chief urged soldiers to lay down their arms, leave their barracks and return to their villages.
As some Fijians wore black in a silent protest, ousted Qarase warned of mass peaceful protests within weeks aimed at forcing Bainimarama to back down while regional powers Australia and New Zealand called for passive resistance.
"If the commander hoped there would be a groundswell of support for what he calls his effort to clean up Fiji, he must be quite disappointed," said Pacific analyst Malcolm Cook of Australia's Lowy Institute for International Policy.
"The biggest and most difficult question is not how to carry out a coup, but how to exit from that situation and switch back to civilian rule, and commander Bainimarama's increasing isolation will make that question much more difficult."
Bainimarama could be forced to back down, leaving him vulnerable to treason charges, Cook said.
But Australian National University professor Brij Lal, who is in Suva, said the coup was a success so far, with most senior officials and Fijians reluctantly acquiescing.
"I think the coup has succeeded. The army is in effective control and there is cooperation -- sullen cooperation, but nonetheless cooperation -- from civil servants," he said, adding there was "no ideological fire in the belly of the people of Fiji against this coup".
But pressure is ratcheting up after Australia and New Zealand announced targeted sanctions, the United States cut aid and the Commonwealth suspended Fiji.
More alarmingly, Fiji's tourism -- the Pacific island idyll's top industry -- is taking a battering as travellers cancel holidays with some airlines and hotels report up to 50 percent cancellations.
Fiji's central bank has tightened capital controls and slapped credit limits on banks in a bid to prevent precious cash reserves fleeing the country.
Popular anger is likely to grow as the thousands of Fijians employed in the tourism industry start losing their jobs and see national prestige tarnished, Dinnen and Cook said.
Possible splits could occur within the military, notably if the United Nations makes good on a threat to remove Fijian soldiers from peacekeeping operations, a substantial source of revenue.
"There is a danger there that what has been a bloodless coup to date could turn into a confrontation as the commander tries to get people to do what he wants done," Dinnen warned.
"In a way he has boxed himself in and its very difficult to see how he will emerge from this other than joining (2000 coup leader) George Speight on his little prison island," he said.
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