There is some doubt about how many voted in Mumbai. The collectors of Mumbai city and suburbs put the voting percentage at 44.5%.
Mumbai and Maharashtra came out to vote in decent numbers compared to May, leaving a problem for politicians. Their worry: is this good for us or bad?
There is some doubt about how many voted in Mumbai. The collectors of Mumbai city and suburbs put the voting percentage at 44.5%. The chief election commissioner in Delhi put it at 50%.
Either way, the numbers are higher than the 41.4% seen during the Lok Sabha polls, and this could make all the difference between a clear victory for the Congress-NCP alliance, as one exit poll has predicted, and a hung assembly that necessitates post-poll wheeling and dealing.
Who did the extra votes go to? Was it the Raj Thackeray factor that brought out the extra vote in Mumbai, or was it the rebel factor that boosted numbers in the rest of the state?
The former should worry the Sena-BJP, the latter the Congress-NCP.
Then there is the joker in the pack: how did the third front, comprising the RPI, Samajwadi Party and Communists, fare?
Both the principal alliances admit in private that the votes polled by the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), the NCP rebels and third front could drastically alter the results. The 44.5% votes polled in Mumbai has kept both sides guessing. The internal assessment of the Congress is that it will cross 75 seats if the MNS polls 6-8% votes. For its part, the NCP has interpreted the normal voting turnout outside Mumbai as a vote for status quo, giving it 55-60 seats.
The Sena-BJP group argues that the thing to watch is the rebels’ performance. “If the third front and the rebels poll well, it could work to our advantage in north Maharashtra (47 seats) and Vidarbha (62),” they say. The Sena-BJP has, however, discounted its chances in the Mumbai-Thane belt (total 60 seats) due to the MNS factor. It is hoping to recoup the losses in the rest of Maharashtra with help from NCP rebels.
The higher percentage of votes in pockets of western Maharashtra (total seats: 58), namely in Kolhapur (72%), is being attributed to the rebel factor which could adversely affect the NCP. The presence of more than 100 rebels across state could dent the ruling combine. The high enthusiasm among voters in Amravati district is beginning to worry the Congress.
The average polling in Marathwada was between 55-60%. These 46 seats will be crucial for the Congress-NCP to retain power. The Congress is not very sure how many of the 18 seats (Congress 7, NCP 11) it won the last time it will retain this time. The Sena, for its part, knows that Marathwada holds the key to its fortunes.
Union industries minister Vilasrao Deshmukh, however, exuded confidence. “The Congress-NCP will be able to retain power,” he said.
BJP general secretary Gopinath Munde was cautious. “Compared to the parliamentary elections (55%), assembly polling (60%) is a huge gain. These are anti-establishment votes. How it transfers into seats remains to be seen.”
BJP leader Vinod Tawde said that “if the Congress-NCP and Sena-BJP are neck-and-neck (as the Star Maaza poll suggests), the key to the formation of government will lie in the hands of 15-25 rebels.” Sena leader Manohar Joshi said that MNS help could be sought, if needed. The MNS is expected to win at least 8-12 seats. Two exit polls give it even more (17-18).
The state’s voting percentage of 60% is more or less on expected lines. The average during the 1962-2004 period was 62%. The highest of 71% was registered in 1995, when the Sena-BJP was voted to power.
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