Next month's assembly elections may well be a watershed in the history of Maharashtra, as the parting of ways between the foremost alliances will result in a multi-polar contest that has not been seen in over three decades.
The rump of the Third Front, Raj Thackeray's MNS and the hardline AIMIM would be the spoilers in the October 15 poll that could throw up some interesting realignments in the event of a fractured mandate.
A month is a long time in politics. After the unexpected sweep in the Lok Sabha elections, the assembly poll was expected to be a cakewalk for the Shiv Sena-BJP.
But within striking distance of power in the state the saffron parties parted ways. Almost immediately afterward the NCP, which had been in power with the Congress for 15 years, announced it would go to the polls on its own.
"Politics in Maharashtra is at a critical juncture. With the Shiv Sena, BJP, Congress and NCP contesting separately, what will happen is difficult to guess. The intense wrangling between the Shiv Sena, the BJP and their allies has diminished the anti-incumbency feeling in the minds of the people," said a former Shiv Sena member of parliament. He believes that the fractured polity would lead to closer contests and smaller victory margins.
The Sena leader admitted that the party and its president Uddhav Thackeray were faced with a make-or-break situation with the BJP likely to go all out to demolish its erstwhile ally after the bitter separation.
Even the BJP, which only the other day appeared confident of a sweep on continuing support for Narendra Modi and strong anti-incumbency, is not so certain any more.
"Now, the outcome is difficult to predict," said a senior BJP leader who appeared crestfallen. He felt that a section of the party's leadership had taken a hawkish position against the Sena.
A painful blame game has already on. Shiv Sena member of parliament Anandrao Adsul has alleged that a "clandestine alliance" between the BJP and NCP has always been in the works.
On the other side, while the NCP had made overtures to the Congress, a section within the party led by deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar had been pushing for the party to fight the polls on its own.
They reasoned that they could muster about 50-60 seats that would provide elbow room for realignments. In 1999, when Sharad Pawar split from the Congress to set up the NCP, the two parties joined hands post elections to dislodge the Shiv Sena-BJP government.
"All parties will be able to gauge their strength. This election will witness a clash of ideologies and approaches," said Surendra Jondhale, professor, department of civics and politics, University of Mumbai. He agreed that post poll the parties would get massive elbow room and this could throw up unlikely configurations.
The NCP's main support is among the Maratha-Kunbi community that constitutes 32% of the population. The party is strong in Western Maharashtra. The Congress will count particularly on the loyalty of minorities, tribals and Dalits apart from a section of the Maratha-Kunbi community.
The Shiv Sena and BJP which had tied up in 1989 after an unsuccessful attempt at the hustings in the 1984 Lok Sabha poll, have had just one shot at power in 1995, which too was possible only with the support of independents, mainly Congress rebels.
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