State goes ahead with project despite expert view that it is too late in the season.
The government announced a `4.50 crore cloud seeding project on Wednesday as a last ditch attempt to augment rains in the Cauvery Basin, although even the company entrusted with the project admitted that cloud-seeding works best when it is part of long-term water management and not as a crisis response.
Captain Arvind Sharma, the CEO of Agni Aviation, told DNA that the cloud seeding would be done using one aeroplane during November. “The North-East monsoon affects Tamil Nadu, Kerala and southern parts of Karnataka, so we will be targeting that area.
We will use one aeroplane and radar data from the Indian Meterological Department as well as our own radar data to identify viable clouds to seed. But if we are presented with sunny days with minimal cloud cover, then we won’t use the aeroplane at all. The success essentially depends on whether we have a cloud,” he said.
Captain Sharma believes that cloud seeding should become an integral part of the state’s weather plans, rather than the last resort. “Cloud seeding should hopefully in time go from crisis response to part of water management,” he said. Prof GS Bhat, chairman of the Centre for Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science (IISc), has his doubts about the project’s chances of success. “If the plan just involves taking an aircraft and seeding clouds that the aircraft comes across, then they may be able to do it. However, installing a radar, etc will be hard,”he said.
Moreover, it will be the fag end of the monsoon season by the time the project can be implemented after getting all the necessary permissions. “One has to look at the November cloud and rainfall climatology in the areas where seeding is planned. My guess is that the chances of getting a good number of seedable clouds are not high,” said Bhat.
At a press conference on Wednesday to announce the cloud-seeding contract, state water resources minister Basavaraj Bommai said it would take a month to obtain all the necessary clearances from the Director General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), telecom ministry and home ministry. So one can expect the seeding to happen only sometime between the first and third weeks of November.
However, B.Puttanna, director of the meterological department in Bangalore, saw a silver lining in the cloud. While admitting that the primary monsoon season for the state ends on October 15, he said the state may benefit from post-monsoon showers.
“Cyclones are likely to form in the Bay of Bengal and that usually results in rainfall, especially in interior Karnataka. Last year, between October and December, the state saw average rainfall amounting to 209 mm. This can be expected this time around as well but it depends on the weather system,” he said.
Dr H Shivanna, director of research, University of Agricultural Sciences (UAS), was more sceptical of the effort, but hoped it would benefit the farmers to some extent. “Any increased amount of rainfall will at least in some way benefit the standing crops that have been already planted, such as ragi, maize, red gram and rice. So, while this (cloud seeding) may not be ideal, I understand that the state is under pressure right now to do something.” he said.
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