In fact, if BJP wins, the party can thank the Congress, Kanubhai Kalsariya and Bipin Sanghvi (another independent candidate) for the victory
It is a triangular fight that on the face of it can go either way. But don't be surprised if Mahuva disappoints Kanubhai Kalsariya once again for, the seat that has consistently voted for the BJP is likely to stick with the ruling party.
In fact, if BJP wins, the party can thank the Congress, Kanubhai Kalsariya and Bipin Sanghvi (another independent candidate) for the victory.
The three are expected to split several of the anti-BJP and caste votes among them and help the ruling party gain the upperhand. In fact, in the 2012 elections, BJP's Bhavna Makwana got 57,498 votes (a victory margin of 28,352). The runner up Bharat Thakar (an independent propped up by Kanubhai's Sadhbhavna panel) won 29,156 votes while the Congress' Rajbhai Mehta got 27,855 votes. Many believe that had it not been for the independent candidate, the Congress would have won the seat in 2012. They expect a repeat of it to play out in the 2017 elections too. Both the BJP and the Congress have put up candidates belonging to Koli community, the dominant caste in the seat.
"Both parties have Koli candidates so ideally the vote of the community should split but it will not happen because the Congress candidate Vijay Baraiya is a newcomer who is not even known by many in his community. The BJP's candidates Raghav Makwana on the contrary is the husband of the current MLA Bhavna and has some standing among the community. He is also a jilla panchayat member. So in all likelihood the community votes will go for the BJP," said a political observer who has closely watched the scene for over 3 decades in Mahuva.
Kalsariya's supporters however believe he will win as his rallies and meets have generated lots of interest. They believe his goodwork will carry him through. Even his opponents agree that he has been working in the area for more than a year, rebuilding his base and actively connecting with people.
No one denies that Kanubhai enjoys goodwill, but most admit it is not enough to turn into votes. Bharat Thakkar, who contested the 2012 polls from Kanubhai's Sadhbhavna panel said, "We are backing the Congress.
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