The death of Ethiopia's prime minister has thrown his country into turmoil, but also raises questions over the future of the West's security policy for the Horn of Africa.
The death of Ethiopia's prime minister has thrown his country into turmoil, but also raises questions over the future of the West's security policy for the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia is a key friend of Britain, Europe and America in a region beset by growing security threats. Ethiopia's neighbours include Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia. Across the Red Sea lies Yemen.
Few of the leaders of those countries harbour any love for the West. In Yemen and Somalia, al-Qaeda's new affiliates are gaining ground.
Ethiopia has consistently been willing to send its soldiers to fight and die against foes it considers a domestic threat, but are also enemies of the West. Chief among them has been al-Shabaab.
When Washington feared that the Somali Islamist group's precursor, the Islamic Courts Union, was sheltering al-Qaeda agents responsible for blowing up US embassies in East Africa, it could not send in its own troops.
More than a decade earlier, several US soldiers died on the streets of Mogadishu during a military mission to try to kill a Somali warlord.
But in 2006 and again in 2011, Meles Zenawi has been happy to take up the role of regional arms-bearer against Somalia, his nation's enemy since before colonial times. In Sudan and South Sudan, Meles has been instrumental in keeping the channels of negotiation open between Khartoum and Juba. Ethiopian peacekeepers man the still-disputed border between the two countries.
Without Meles' involvement, his supporters say, no peace would be reached. Would a return to civil war have followed? We will never know. What is clear now is that there is no leader in the region with the international clout and respect that Meles commanded.
Analysts say that there is unlikely to be any major upheaval in the short to medium term. Policies, agreements, treaties and joint operations with Western powers that were set in motion while Meles was prime minister will continue.
But as his successor is likely to face increasing difficulties within Ethiopia's borders, there will be less and less time for regional powerplaying.
That is likely to leave Western diplomats and geopolitical strategists scratching their heads about where they will now turn to find a willing army to fight their battles and a willing leader to voice their arguments.
Kenya and Uganda have both sent their soldiers beyond their borders, into Somalia to join the Ethiopians in the fight against al-Shabaab.
But both countries also face serious domestic uncertainties and the leaders of neither nation look ready to fill Meles's boots.
He will be sorely missed.
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